Monthly Barometer
Global economic data continues to weaken, with contractionary forces taking hold around the world. However, contraction doesn’t mean recession: growth is slowing but expansion isn’t [...]
Global economic data continues to weaken, with contractionary forces taking hold around the world. However, contraction doesn’t mean recession: growth is slowing but expansion isn’t [...]
Tyler Cowen, “The U.S.-China Cold War Will Get Worse Before It Gets Better” The US and China are “carving out separate economic and political orders,” marked by a “collapse of trust”. This will lead to a bidirectional blockade on travel and investment as national security considerations prevail. What does this mean in practice? There will be two separate internets; US tech companies will be kept out of China, and vice versa; and so on. The winners: lower-wage nations like Bangladesh and Vietnam. The losers: nations like Germany and Singapore that wish to keep strong commercial ties to both the US and China (reads in 6-7 min).
Michael Spence, “The Restructuring of the World” (Project Syndicate, 27 September 2018)The Nobel laureate in economics offers a useful framework to think about the changes [...]
This month marked the 10th anniversary of the Great financial crisis. What is its legacy? (1) The whole world is over-indebted, with total global debt (public, [...]