Tyler Cowen, “The U.S.-China Cold War Will Get Worse Before It Gets Better”
The US and China are “carving out separate economic and political orders,” marked by a “collapse of trust”. This will lead to a bidirectional blockade on travel and investment as national security considerations prevail. What does this mean in practice? There will be two separate internets; US tech companies will be kept out of China, and vice versa; and so on. The winners: lower-wage nations like Bangladesh and Vietnam. The losers: nations like Germany and Singapore that wish to keep strong commercial ties to both the US and China (reads in 6-7 min).

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