An ‘inch-deep mile-wide’ predictive and analytical monthly newsletter.
Monthly Barometer
GDP growth should be viewed in context. Central banks will do what’s needed to curb inflation. Likewise governments in terms of corporate (and other) taxation required to acquiesce domestic rumblings. Jubilant stock markets are not a reliable sign of buoyant economies. Climate change is getting hotter and hitting harder. The armoury of cyber warriors is evermore complex, efficient and [...]
Monthly Barometer
The precipitous global recovery is bringing with it a myriad of consequences, good for some, not so good for others: mind spinning data; run-away demand with which supply is struggling to keep up; inflation overshoot already causing food insecurity. Energy transition has gone from optional, through desirable to obligatory. Personal freedom risks falling victim to a potent mix of [...]
Monthly Barometer
An under-anticipated, synchronised but unevenly distributed global recovery is in the offing. Digitalisation may mean the ‘roaring’ goes on into the late 20s but the dangers of a divergent recovery and the debt-trap are not going away. In wealthy nations the rich will be solicited for a ‘recovery contribution’. In poor nations the pain of slow recovery will have [...]
Monthly Barometer
US stimulus packages and vaccines vanquishing the variants are good for global GDP prospects 2021-22. But this growth could come with collateral damage for EMs. World population growth has taken an unexpected hit from the pandemic. Growth in climate migration will increasingly test democratic policy makers. Growing rivalry between China and the West will have multifaceted fallout: economic, societal [...]
Monthly Barometer
Some inflation in the near future is a possibility but the deeper trends are disinflationary. When will it happen and what will it look like? - the key questions about post-COVID’ normal’. As ‘weird’ becomes more and more ’normal’ in terms of the climate, resilience matters more and more. The reflation narrative is in full swing, with the sharp increase [...]
Monthly Barometer
Virus variants are stealing a march on vaccination efforts. Linear thinking will always fail to pick up the financial (and other) impact of macro events. With inequality now firmly on policy makers’ radars, the value of social capital is being increasingly recognised. Investors and financial institutions are now recognising climate risk. For value creation don’t underestimate human ingenuity. The longer [...]
Monthly Barometer
Greater divergence - social, economic, (geo)political, and generational - will characterise our world in 2021. Technology deployed to sustainable ends and as an economic stimulant is a reason for optimism. Investment flowing towards renewables and projects safeguarding natural capital could be a win-win for the environment and employment. 2021 will be a year of increasing divergence. (1) Divergence in economic [...]
Monthly Barometer
Effective vaccines are just around the corner, not so a widespread rapid economic recovery - its K shape means that for many sectors the return to economic’ health’ will take a lot longer. In contrast, as China comes out of COVID, she is coming of age and taking much of Asia with her. Zillennials won’t take `washing’ as an answer. [...]
Monthly Barometer
China has ‘controlled’ Covid-19 and is beginning to reap the economic benefits. In the rich world, up to now, policy has staved off economic disaster but the spectre of mass unemployment looms. A US, divided as never before, braces itself for post-election turmoil - the world watches and worries. Policy alone stands between the global economy and the abyss. The [...]
