MONTHLY BAROMETER

The advent of the omicron variant means renewed uncertainty in terms of the economic outlook. Emerging countries still risk being the hardest hit. Global inflation will probably be kept at bay. But current market buoyancy looks increasingly fragile - beware of dislocations. The global economy can not be unscathed by inflation threats in US and slowing growth in China. [...]

The post pandemic recovery is both slower and more asymmetric than anticipated. There are more structural reasons for the ‘shortage economy’ than originally thought. Without major investment in renewables the global energy market will be unbalanced. Transient inflation looks here to stay - employees are not. The great re-evaluation persists, with an altered mindset in relation to work. Effectively [...]

With rising inflation looking more recalcitrant than expected, central banks will be more hawkish than dovish. With shortening supply chains and rising protectionism, localisation is gaining ground on globalisation. That said, the rest of the world still stands to be impacted by any hit to China’s growth inflicted by the Evergrande debacle. The Eurozone is vaccinating its way back [...]

Delta driven deceleration is a reality, but so too is long-awaited increased productivity. Whatever we do, the climate crisis and contingent extreme weather events are not going away, but despair and obliviousness are not an option. Bright ideas and radical policy are what’s needed. China is deploying the latter to tackle inequality. A post-Afghanistan, weaker US will result in a [...]

Beset by variants and surging infection rates the global recovery hangs in the balance. Public debt is on the rise and how to solve it is up in air. The acceleration of global warming is taking even the scientists by surprise. Those doing business with or in China today must expect the unexpected. The nature of future consumption may be [...]

GDP growth should be viewed in context. Central banks will do what’s needed to curb inflation. Likewise governments in terms of corporate (and other) taxation required to acquiesce domestic rumblings. Jubilant stock markets are not a reliable sign of buoyant economies. Climate change is getting hotter and hitting harder. The armoury of cyber warriors is evermore complex, efficient and [...]

The precipitous global recovery is bringing with it a myriad of consequences, good for some, not so good for others: mind spinning data; run-away demand with which supply is struggling to keep up; inflation overshoot already causing food insecurity. Energy transition has gone from optional, through desirable to obligatory. Personal freedom risks falling victim to a potent mix of [...]

An under-anticipated, synchronised but unevenly distributed global recovery is in the offing. Digitalisation may mean the ‘roaring’ goes on into the late 20s but the dangers of a divergent recovery and the debt-trap are not going away. In wealthy nations the rich will be solicited for a ‘recovery contribution’. In poor nations the pain of slow recovery will have [...]

US stimulus packages and vaccines vanquishing the variants are good for global GDP prospects 2021-22. But this growth could come with collateral damage for EMs. World population growth has taken an unexpected hit from the pandemic. Growth in climate migration will increasingly test democratic policy makers. Growing rivalry between China and the West will have multifaceted fallout: economic, societal [...]