An ‘inch-deep mile-wide’ predictive and analytical monthly newsletter.
Monthly Barometer
Reality proving worse than imaginings. Is the US heading towards “competitive authoritarianism’? With tariffs and inflation risks, investors less gung-ho on US exceptionalism. A disintegrating international system. Negotiations over Ukraine’s future - without Ukraine or Europe. An AI arms race where winning trumps everything else. Good fallout from DOGE?[...]
Monthly Barometer
A divergent economic picture. Interest rates higher for longer. Trump’s unpredictability could turn US good news to bad. How sustainable is MAGA inspired investment strategy? A tough road ahead for China. The climate paradox: as climate crises rage, green policies go into retreat. The rise and rise of singledom.[...]
Monthly Barometer
Global fallout from Trumps new ‘policy’ of uncertainty. France is down, but not out and not Greece. What are Putin’s limits? Europe must now pay its way - but how? COP29 - too little too late. But tech could still save the day.[...]
Monthly Barometer
Low growth and high debt sum up the global economic outlook. The disruptive potential of tariffs. Price inflation and grievances. The BRICS have a new agenda. Yet, geopolitics are still being discounted. US$ remains difficult to do without. The wind has gone out of climate investment. The Japanification of Europe. For sustained growth, institutions still matter - a lot.[...]
Monthly Barometer
Interests rates will be a bit higher for much longer. European governments have little choice when it comes to fiscal discipline, but must also rise to the challenge of investing in innovation and competitiveness. China’s response to the challenge of slower economic growth but beware weak domestic demand. Escalating violence and an unwinnable war. Almost everything can be a target and/or potential weapon. The division of the sexes. AI good but not always better.[...]
Monthly Barometer
Interest rates coming down. Foreign investors concerns about China. Europe trilemma. Singaporean PM concerns about the middle class. Plunging fertility rates. Tech: enough is enough? Russia-Ukraine stalemate. Sudan: the normalisation of chaos. And the normalisation of risks.[...]
Monthly Barometer
A shifting landscape for the US election. Economies cooling, halting and a cause for concern: US, China and Europe respectively. Luxury: a little less alluring. Inflation tamed but still in flux. Deglobalisation is happening - except in sport. What’s happening with AI and productivity? The ascendancy of the far right.[...]
Monthly Barometer
Democracy and market efficiency. Fiscal sustainability and political risk. The far right on the rise in Europe. Confidence is fundamental - and fickle. The global economic and geopolitical impact of the US elections. Extreme heat is bad for growth. Some Chinese HNWI are on the run - with their money.[...]
Monthly Barometer
Confusion over interest rates. Tariffs and tit for tat trade war. Global economic fallout from China’s repressed domestic demand. Rising concern over geopolitics. Europe at risk. Green backlash notwithstanding, ‘greening’ almost everything is inevitable and must be paid for. Be neither over optimistic about AI’s impact on growth nor over pessimistic about its impact on the labour force - at least not yet.[...]