MONTHLY BAROMETER

The Global Economy is facing "a confluence of calamities". Inflation anxiety is being displaced by the spectre of recession. There is no end in view for the war in Ukraine. Meanwhile, it is distracting vital attention from the ever worsening climate crisis. The efficiency premium of autocracies now looks dubious. China is facing its own spectre of zero growth. Culture wars claim their latest victim - ESG. [...]

The longer the conflict in Ukraine lasts, the more dire will be the global consequences - economic, geopolitical and societal. Inflation is soaring and set to persist. Russia’s war is provoking a major global food crisis that is impacting disproportionately hard the world's poorest. Lockdowns in China are creating further inflationary pressures with [...]

A new world ‘disorder’ is emerging, in which Western hegemony is over, dollar dominance is under major pressure and nuclear proliferation will hasten. The longer the war, the higher the risk of recession and increased ’slowbalization’. Resilience and shortened supply chains have become priorities. Accelerated climate disruption is perhaps the highest priority of all. Activism is increasingly innovative - and [...]

The war in Ukraine has heightened the tensions in the global economy: lower growth and higher inflation are now a given. Ideas that the possibility of a swift diplomatic or domestic solution to the conflict exists are nothing but wishful thinking. The early phase of Putin’s assault on Ukraine has not gone to plan and as a result it [...]

With half the world infected, Omicron now looks to be in retreat. Growth is slowing down, while uncertainty and its contingent risks persist. The Fed’s approach to inflation is now certain, but is wage inflation here to stay? The pandemic has put paid to convergence. Green finance looks increasingly like a bubble waiting to do what bubbles do. What [...]

In 2022 a mix of Omicron and inflation will slow global growth. US global dominance continues to come under pressure, while at home a civil conflict scenario is becoming more likely. Stay-at-home working is here to stay. The scarcity of good jobs will be high up on policy makers' priority lists. NFTs were 2021’s speed-of-change poster boy. All things crypto [...]

The advent of the omicron variant means renewed uncertainty in terms of the economic outlook. Emerging countries still risk being the hardest hit. Global inflation will probably be kept at bay. But current market buoyancy looks increasingly fragile - beware of dislocations. The global economy can not be unscathed by inflation threats in US and slowing growth in China. [...]

The post pandemic recovery is both slower and more asymmetric than anticipated. There are more structural reasons for the ‘shortage economy’ than originally thought. Without major investment in renewables the global energy market will be unbalanced. Transient inflation looks here to stay - employees are not. The great re-evaluation persists, with an altered mindset in relation to work. Effectively [...]

With rising inflation looking more recalcitrant than expected, central banks will be more hawkish than dovish. With shortening supply chains and rising protectionism, localisation is gaining ground on globalisation. That said, the rest of the world still stands to be impacted by any hit to China’s growth inflicted by the Evergrande debacle. The Eurozone is vaccinating its way back [...]