MONTHLY BAROMETER

Confusion over interest rates. Tariffs and tit for tat trade war. Global economic fallout from China’s repressed domestic demand. Rising concern over geopolitics. Europe at risk. Green backlash notwithstanding, ‘greening’ almost everything is inevitable and must be paid for. Be neither over optimistic about AI’s impact on growth nor over pessimistic about its impact on the labour force - at least not yet.[...]

Global growth: "Tepid twenties". Rates: "higher for longer" goes on. The US economy relative strength: a problem for the rest of the world. Trade policies: a “race to the bottom”. The high risk of a ”Great Reversal”. Climate action is an economic no-brainer. Ukraine in a critical situation, victim of an “anti-hegemonic coalition”. Global rearmament on steroids. Four canaries in the mine.[...]

Industrial policies are everywhere. Three recent warnings about global over-indebtedness. Central banks and regulators worry about climate change. Will there be a US soft landing or not? Immigration in rescue of the US economy. The risk of Europe becoming ungovernable. Geopolitical insights and “selective compassion”. AI euphoria. Four canaries in the mine.[...]

Short-term economic outlook looking better than expected. Public finances looking unsustainable. What would a Trump victory look like? Industrial policies changing how business is done. Russia’s waiting game in Ukraine. Galloping global heating heralds the early stage of a climate emergency. Just green isn’t enough, green transition must be fair too. Is it India’s moment? [...]

It’s all about conflating risks. A lacklustre global economy. Don’t bank on too many rate cuts. Geopolitics:escalating? The dangers of climate ‘inactivism’. The potency of the three “Ps”, aided and abetted by AI & disinformation. The US - fractured. Beware the demographics. [...]

The 2023 predictions that got away. As for 2024: geopolitical risks are here to stay; security will continue to trump the rest; tech innovation will go on expanding faster and faster; green will re-bound and the US election will be the most consequential event of the year. [...]

The global economy defies ‘like-the-past’ models - they don’t work anymore. Controlling public debt and austerity are as politically thorny as ever. Fossil fuels will go, but not without a fight. Migration: an economic must, but a political minefield. Why Western populism weighs in for Putin against Ukraine. One US-Chinese ‘swallow’ does not a new summery geopolitical outlook make. [...]

Global outlook grim. Global economy, limping not sprinting. Geopolitics impacts everything: economics, investor mood and moves. Western supremacy is a thing of the past. Some good news in Poland. Global repercussions of the Israel-Hamas war are bad news for Ukraine. Ultra-luxury market goes on rising. The double-edged sword of generative AI. [...]

The unsinkable US consumer is keeping its economy afloat. For rich economies, oil price inflation should be a manageable headwind. Long green - short brown or not, that is the question. Developing new technologies, including AI, is thirsty work. A Taskforce on Climate-related Financial Disclosure (TCFD) is on the way. Much in this "unhinged world” hinges on the outcome of [...]