Effective vaccines are just around the corner, not so a widespread rapid economic recovery - its K shape means that for many sectors the return to economic’ health’ will take a lot longer. In contrast, as China comes out of COVID, she is coming of age and taking much of Asia with her. Zillennials won’t take `washing’ as an answer. [...]
China has ‘controlled’ Covid-19 and is beginning to reap the economic benefits. In the rich world, up to now, policy has staved off economic disaster but the spectre of mass unemployment looms. A US, divided as never before, braces itself for post-election turmoil - the world watches and worries. Policy alone stands between the global economy and the abyss. The [...]
In the rich world, autumn COVID seems a little less deadly, but for all that no less devastating for the world’s poor. In terms of the economic recovery, K is either for kickstart or kick-down-and-out, depending on the industry. Rising geopolitical tensions and rivalry are filling the void left by a dissolving global order.
COVID-19 will be with us well into until 2021. Austerity has been replaced by unprecedented government spending, some of which, combined with private investment, could place clean air policies at the vanguard of efforts to stem global warming. Geopolitical flash points abroad and activism at home mean that both the positive and negative aspects of the status-quo are under serious [...]
Even as the pandemic continues to grow its longer term economic and societal impacts are starting to emerge. Business’ environmental costs must be on future balance sheets. With a vital new deal Europe’s position gains in credibility amidst deteriorating US-China relations.
Economists disagree over the shape and timing of a recovery. Re-opening is far from a given and attitudes towards meat, oil and the dollar may never be the same again. A consensus with teeth is emerging as regards to the urgency for climate action. A disconcerting dissonance exists between economists regarding recovery prospects. On the sell-side, a large majority believe [...]
Rising unemployment, rumbling US-China tensions, social contract under pressure. Women leaders and greater EU integration might have some answers. Wide-ranging fiscal and monetary policy measures have succeeded in averting a global financial meltdown. To do so, by the end of this year, OECD countries will probably have taken on an extra USD17tr of public debt, increasing their debt to GDP [...]
Wide-ranging fiscal and monetary policy measures have succeeded in averting a global financial meltdown. To do so, by the end of this year, OECD countries will probably have taken on an extra USD17tr of public debt, increasing their debt to GDP ratio from 109 to 137%. So far, bailouts have been remarkably effective at providing life-support and saving the patient, [...]
Seasonal COVID-19, sub-zero oil prices and autocratic ‘strong men’ flexing their muscles all add up to a very uncertain investment environment: Is market consensus under-estimating the impact? We think so.