MONTHLY BAROMETER2021-04-14T16:31:36+02:00

An ‘inch-deep mile-wide’ predictive and analytical monthly newsletter.

Monthly Barometer

1 July 2020|

Economists disagree over the shape and timing of a recovery. Re-opening is far from a given and attitudes towards meat, oil and the dollar may never be the same again. A consensus with teeth is emerging as regards to the urgency for climate action. A disconcerting dissonance exists between economists regarding recovery prospects. On the sell-side, a large majority believe [...]

Monthly Barometer

1 June 2020|

Rising unemployment, rumbling US-China tensions, social contract under pressure. Women leaders and greater EU integration might have some answers. Wide-ranging fiscal and monetary policy measures have succeeded in averting a global financial meltdown. To do so, by the end of this year, OECD countries will probably have taken on an extra USD17tr of public debt, increasing their debt to GDP [...]

Monthly Barometer

31 May 2020|

Wide-ranging fiscal and monetary policy measures have succeeded in averting a global financial meltdown. To do so, by the end of this year, OECD countries will probably have taken on an extra USD17tr of public debt, increasing their debt to GDP ratio from 109 to 137%. So far, bailouts have been remarkably effective at providing life-support and saving the patient, [...]

Monthly Barometer

1 April 2020|

Seasonal COVID-19, sub-zero oil prices and autocratic ‘strong men’ flexing their muscles all add up to a very uncertain investment environment: Is market consensus under-estimating the impact? We think so.

Monthly Barometer

1 March 2020|

Covid-19 is inflicting shock of an unprecedented nature on the global economy while exacerbating many pre-existing societal failings and inequalities. Governments have no choice but to adopt a ‘whatever it takes’ policy approach. Uncertainty and risks prevail. The environment and ESG may benefit; for emerging economies it will be quite the reverse. The abruptness and severity of the shock inflicted [...]

Monthly Barometer

1 February 2020|

To give you a sense of which global issues will shape the months to come, here are the buzzwords that appeared most frequently in the Monthly Barometer and Weekly Selections of 2019 (in no particular order) ... The world economy is on the verge of something unprecedented: a global slowdown led by China, not the US. It is now inevitable [...]

Monthly Barometer

1 January 2020|

To give you a sense of which global issues will shape the months to come, here are the buzzwords that appeared most frequently in the Monthly Barometer and Weekly Selections of 2019 (in no particular order) ...

Monthly Barometer

31 December 2019|

To give you a sense of which global issues will shape the months to come, here are the buzzwords that appeared most frequently in the Monthly Barometer and Weekly Selections of 2019 (in no particular order) ...

Monthly Barometer

2 December 2019|

Is the recent (slight) improvement in the global economy real and for keeps? Buoyant financial markets and many pundits think so, confident that (1) the un-inversion of the yield curve, (2) the Fed’s three cuts in interest rates, and (3) recent industrial production not as bad as expected (in China, the US, Japan and Germany) are proof that recessionary forces [...]

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