MONTHLY BAROMETER

Short-term economic outlook looking better than expected. Public finances looking unsustainable. What would a Trump victory look like? Industrial policies changing how business is done. Russia’s waiting game in Ukraine. Galloping global heating heralds the early stage of a climate emergency. Just green isn’t enough, green transition must be fair too. Is it India’s moment? [...]

It’s all about conflating risks. A lacklustre global economy. Don’t bank on too many rate cuts. Geopolitics:escalating? The dangers of climate ‘inactivism’. The potency of the three “Ps”, aided and abetted by AI & disinformation. The US - fractured. Beware the demographics. [...]

The 2023 predictions that got away. As for 2024: geopolitical risks are here to stay; security will continue to trump the rest; tech innovation will go on expanding faster and faster; green will re-bound and the US election will be the most consequential event of the year. [...]

The global economy defies ‘like-the-past’ models - they don’t work anymore. Controlling public debt and austerity are as politically thorny as ever. Fossil fuels will go, but not without a fight. Migration: an economic must, but a political minefield. Why Western populism weighs in for Putin against Ukraine. One US-Chinese ‘swallow’ does not a new summery geopolitical outlook make. [...]

Global outlook grim. Global economy, limping not sprinting. Geopolitics impacts everything: economics, investor mood and moves. Western supremacy is a thing of the past. Some good news in Poland. Global repercussions of the Israel-Hamas war are bad news for Ukraine. Ultra-luxury market goes on rising. The double-edged sword of generative AI. [...]

The unsinkable US consumer is keeping its economy afloat. For rich economies, oil price inflation should be a manageable headwind. Long green - short brown or not, that is the question. Developing new technologies, including AI, is thirsty work. A Taskforce on Climate-related Financial Disclosure (TCFD) is on the way. Much in this "unhinged world” hinges on the outcome of [...]

Interest rates and inflation look set to be higher for longer, ditto for public debt levels. China’s flailing economy and the global economic and geopolitical fallout. Expansion of BRICS bloc membership changes nothing and everything. Beware 'risk blindness’, faltering climate policies and bubbling AI [...]

A resilient global economy but not to the same extent everywhere. Beware of ‘junk’ crawling out from under the low interest rate woodwork - almost everywhere. Not everyone feels threatened by AI but enough do to make it matter. Extreme heat events will impact everything. The worsening climate crisis engenders climate fatigue, powering political polarisation. Putin will stop at [...]

Global recession is almost a given, but there is mixed-messaging as to its severity. Security concerns and suspicion are pervasive - policymakers decide, business must adapt. How much has the Wagner attempted coup weakened Putin? Conserving natural capital is not an option, it's a necessity for economic growth. The same is true for the deployment of generative AI and [...]