MONTHLY BAROMETER

Lower global growth, higher interest rates and borrowing costs, Putin's failing war efforts raise the stakes, far-right ascendency in Europe, markets disciplining the UK, natural capital is now a big deal, one reason for optimism: the Green Revolution, a take-away from the MB Summit of Minds in Chamonix [...]

Taming the inflation beast. Lagging productivity. China's deceleration. Water crisis and economics. Putin's war & energy. EU energy crunch 'catastrophic' or not so 'catastrophic'? The pandemic changes that are here to stay. The politicisation of ESG is gaining momentum. 

Gloomy sums up the global economic outlook. Deepening describes the ongoing global energy crisis. Except for a few, difficult is what a strong $ is going to make life for the rest. Still rising is the direction of far-right populism. Does survivable describe the pain inflicted on Europe by Putin’s weaponisation of energy? Increasingly plausible is how a Chinese [...]

Uncertainty is the certain fallout from a mix of multiple global crises. The era of low interest rates is over, but recessionary risks are outrunning inflationary ones. The war in Ukraine and the Chinese property crisis should stay at the forefront of our minds - whatever the headlines are saying. With democracy diminished, can the US remain a financial ‘safe [...]

The Global Economy is facing "a confluence of calamities". Inflation anxiety is being displaced by the spectre of recession. There is no end in view for the war in Ukraine. Meanwhile, it is distracting vital attention from the ever worsening climate crisis. The efficiency premium of autocracies now looks dubious. China is facing its own spectre of zero growth. Culture wars claim their latest victim - ESG. [...]

The longer the conflict in Ukraine lasts, the more dire will be the global consequences - economic, geopolitical and societal. Inflation is soaring and set to persist. Russia’s war is provoking a major global food crisis that is impacting disproportionately hard the world's poorest. Lockdowns in China are creating further inflationary pressures with [...]

A new world ‘disorder’ is emerging, in which Western hegemony is over, dollar dominance is under major pressure and nuclear proliferation will hasten. The longer the war, the higher the risk of recession and increased ’slowbalization’. Resilience and shortened supply chains have become priorities. Accelerated climate disruption is perhaps the highest priority of all. Activism is increasingly innovative - and [...]

The war in Ukraine has heightened the tensions in the global economy: lower growth and higher inflation are now a given. Ideas that the possibility of a swift diplomatic or domestic solution to the conflict exists are nothing but wishful thinking. The early phase of Putin’s assault on Ukraine has not gone to plan and as a result it [...]

With half the world infected, Omicron now looks to be in retreat. Growth is slowing down, while uncertainty and its contingent risks persist. The Fed’s approach to inflation is now certain, but is wage inflation here to stay? The pandemic has put paid to convergence. Green finance looks increasingly like a bubble waiting to do what bubbles do. What [...]