Why a Goldilocks scenario for the world economy (not too hot, not too cold) is just that – a fairy tale. The only scenario that would see an end to the war in Ukraine is Putin losing it. Why the displacement effect scenario in relation to China could see India reaping the benefits. Why different ‘menus’ suit different ages, and why childlike wonder suits them all.
QUOTE OF THE WEEK
“Wondering is rewarding”, Frank Keil in the last article
ARTICLE OF THE WEEK
Nouriel Roubini, Don’t Bet on a Soft Landing
(Project Syndicate, 26 May 2022)
We concur. The Fed and other central banks contend that they will be able to raise interest rates by just enough to pull the inflation rate down to their 2% target without causing a recession. But it is doubtful that this Goldilocks scenario – an economy that is neither too hot nor too cold – can be achieved. Historical evidence suggests that the degree of monetary-policy tightening that is needed will likely cause a hard landing in the form of a recession and higher unemployment in the next 24 months (metered paywall – reads in 6-8 min).
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Anne Applebaum, The War Won’t End Until Putin Loses
(The Atlantic, 23 May 2022)
This week in Davos, Henry Kissinger (and others) said that Ukraine should cede territory to Russia to end the fighting. Like the Ukrainian president (and others), Applebaum disagrees, arguing that offering Vladimir Putin a face-saving compromise will only enable future aggression. She says that conceding territory for a deal now will simply set up another conflict later on. Nobody has thought yet about an endgame for Ukraine – hence the heated discussions about how the war could possibly end. Read on to understand one side of the argument (metered paywall – reads in 7-9 min).
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Pranjal Sharma, As WEF gets underway at Davos, India sells stability, growth, and dynamism
(Business Standard, 23 May 2022)
Pranjal, a good friend of the Monthly Barometer, makes the case that India played its cards well at Davos. Indeed! Anxiety permeated the atmosphere at this year’s Annual Meeting (about Ukraine, about the environment, about an impending recession), and India, because of its mammoth size, was the only significant country to offer hope. With rising doubts about China, it might benefit from a displacement effect (metered paywall – reads in 5-6 min).
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Coco Khan, Meal of a lifetime: what to eat at every age
(The Guardian, 14 May 2022)
A segway to the session we had at our Chamonix Summit of Minds last year. The science of nutrition is fiendishly complex and it’s almost impossible to pull out any kind of generalisation. However, we know about the basics (such as: avoid ultra-processed foods) and the consensus over the sorts of food we might want to prioritise at various life stages. This article clearly delineates what to eat by age – neat and simple (free access – reads in 5-7 min).
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Frank Keil, How to revive your sense of wonder
(Psyche, 18 May 2022)
Wonder – a word with multiple meanings – motivates targeted explorations and discoveries. The learning it encourages enables us to engage with others more fully and helps provide a shield against misinformation. Wonder is embodied in the childhood urge to ask ‘how’ and ‘why’, which usually fades with age. However, as this article explains (with very practical suggestions), we can all learn to rediscover the joys of wide-eyed discovery (free access – reads in less than 10 min).
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