The connection between commodity prices, growth and inflation explained. How corruption explains the poor performance of the ‘mighty’ Russian army. In Idaho, far right supremacy is no longer a worst-case scenario – it’s becoming a reality. The ups and downs of cryptocurrency explained – it could still be a game changer, but not just now. Why how you say something matters just as much, perhaps even more, than the idea itself.
QUOTE OF THE WEEK
ARTICLE OF THE WEEK
Deniz Igan and al., Commodity market disruptions, growth and inflation
(BIS, 18 May 2022)
This research bulletin from the bank of central banks (the BIS) makes plain and simple the nature of the connection between commodity prices, growth and inflation. Higher commodity prices will erode global growth and will also intensify global inflationary pressures. The effects will be strongest for food and energy prices, with spill overs likely. It concludes that
structural changes in the global economy and stronger policy frameworks make stagflation less likely than in the 1970s (free access – reads in 10 min or so, 1 min for the exec summary).
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Olga Lautman, How corruption in the Russian army and military-industrial complex derailed Putin’s blitzkrieg in Ukraine
(The Moscow Times, 13 May 2022)
In Ukraine, the performance of the seemingly formidable Russian military machine has fallen dramatically short of what was expected: the Russian army now gives the impression of almost literally being bogged down in what was supposed to be a “short, victorious war”. The reason is corruption: not just in the army itself but in its entire ‘ecosystem’ (from training to equipment and data). Ultimately, this is what may save Ukraine. This rather technical article makes plain the extent of corruption – an element few analysts had discussed in the early days of the war (free access – reads in 7-8 min).
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Christopher Mathias, Living With The Far-Right Insurgency In Idaho
(Yahoo News,17 May 2022)
This is a long, well-documented and sad read about the US state of Idaho’s slow descent into ‘Christo-fascism’. A lot has already been said about how the strategy of “confrontational politics” is leading to both the radicalization of the Republican Party and the decline of democracy in the US – possibly bringing (parts of) the country ever closer to a precipice. Many dismiss those warnings as background noise and doom-mongering, but as this article shows, the worst-case scenario is slowly morphing into reality in Idaho where an authoritarian GOP is setting about the creation of a whiter, Christian nation (free access – reads in about 15 min – well spent to grasp what’s going on).
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Emily Stewart, What is the point of crypto?
(VOX, 16 May 2022)
The crypto market just suffered a meltdown, making the repeated claims of its proponents (that cryptocurrency it is an inflation hedge, digital gold, the future of money, etc.) look increasingly dubious. This article, based on interviews with people in the ‘crypto space’ argues that “crypto is a solution in search of a problem – or problems.” Some of what crypto does is promising, but “a lot of what it does is trash, and trash that’s costing some people a lot of money”. It concludes by saying that “it would be unwise to definitively say that crypto has no chance of being a game changer; it would also be disingenuous to claim it is now.” (metered paywall – reads in 7-9 min).
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A Respected MIT Professor Said Your Success Will Be Determined by 3 Things. Here’s How to Get Better at Each of Them
(Inc, May 2022)
We are not in the business of self-improvement, but these simple recommendations from a famous MIT professor make eminent sense: “your success in life will be determined largely by your ability to speak, your ability to write, and the quality of your ideas, in that order.” Good ideas are of course essential but dependent upon the ability to communicate them in an impactful manner. Contains useful tips and reads in just 3-4 min (metered paywall).
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