Why a global trade backlash is brewing against China. The increasing clout of the ‘middle powers’. A Nobel economics laureate rethinks economics. Why our digital tools sometimes create more problems than they solve. Figuring out why we age.
QUOTE OF THE WEEK
ARTICLE OF THE WEEK
Daniel Rosen and Logan Wright, China’s Economic Collision Course
(Foreign Affairs, 28 March 2024)
A global trade backlash is brewing against China, like it did against Japan in the 1970s and 1980s. After over two decades of strong investment-led growth, China now needs consumption-led growth because further investment will only yield diminishing returns. Yet over the past two years, the exact opposite has happened: unable to spur domestic consumption, Chinese companies have exported their excess production abroad (in 2022 and 2023, China’s anaemic domestic demand pushed the trade surplus to $1.7 trillion). The US, the EU, Japan, and BRIC countries worry that China’s current policies supporting the very industries that drive its export growth will result in even larger Chinese trade surpluses and foreign deficits, undercutting competition abroad and threatening to put their firms out of business and their workers out of jobs. Therefore, foreign governments will increasingly turn to antidumping tools, which typically include tariffs on Chinese goods produced below cost (metered paywall that may require prior registration, reads in 8-10 min).
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Alejo Czerwonko, Is this a pivotal moment for the rise of the ‘middle powers’?
(World Economic Forum, 22 March 2024)
UBS chief investment officer for emerging markets discusses how global trade, supply chains and security alliances are shifting to adjust to geopolitical changes. One of the most noticeable phenomena is the way in which ‘middle powers’ and ‘geopolitical swing states’ are looking to leverage their positions to take advantage of these changes. India is the posterchild of this recent evolution: it avoids picking sides to its advantage, pursuing its domestic interests with a great deal of flexibility. Gulf countries do the same. Naturally, global investors are watching how these manoeuvres are playing out (free article, reads in 6-7 min).
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Angus Deaton, Rethinking my Economics
(IMF, March 2024)
A must-read. The famous Nobel prize winner economist has changed his mind about economics. He now thinks that the discipline is in “some” disarray and he denounces the “overenthusiastic belief in the efficacy of markets.” He argues that without an analysis of power, “we cannot understand inequality or much else in modern capitalism.” He also regrets that “we often equate wellbeing with money or consumption, missing much of what matters to people.” A sobering self-reflection that will resonate with philosophers, historians, and sociologists (free access, reads in 5-6 min).
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Jonnie Penn, The Next Tech Backlash Will Be About Hygiene
(Time, 18 March 2024)
Could we one day decomputerize? The Professor of AI Ethics and Society argues that digital tools have become iatrogenic (when attempting to solve a problem makes it worse) because they harm us as we “use” them to try and improve our lives. Hence the current forms of withdrawal from our digital tools that can take many forms, both individual (like deleting an app) and collective (a “no laptops” café for example). He contends that the future of AI might surprise us with an unprecedented coalition against digital maximalists and their presumptions of “AI-first. In response to burnout, digital fatigue, algorithmic-racism, -sexism, -ableism, -authoritarianism, and a global mental health crisis, some will decomputerize (metered paywall, reads in 6-7 min).
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Dana Smith, Why Do We Age? Scientists Are Figuring It Out
(The New York Times, 25 March 2024)
In 2021, the global anti-aging market was valued at around $62bn and is expected to increase to 93bn by 2027. Yet, none of what is on offer in it can roll back the hands of time. Scientists are frantically working to understand the biological causes of aging in the hope of one day being able to offer tools to slow or stop its visible signs and, more important, age-related diseases. These underlying mechanisms are often called “the hallmarks of ageing”, which fall into two broad categories: (1) general wear and tear on a cellular level, and (2) the body’s decreasing ability to remove old or dysfunctional cells and proteins. Read on to understand the significance of telomeres, epigenetics and mitochondria (gifted article, reads in 6-8 min).
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