The impact of dramatically falling birthrates – almost everywhere. What could the de-dollarisation of the global economy look like? A new Iran might be coming into view – but what will it look like? How milk has entered the culture wars. Why memory is more about now than then.
QUOTE OF THE WEEK
ARTICLE OF THE WEEK
Niall Ferguson, Global Population Crash Isn’t Sci-Fi Anymore
(Bloomberg, 11 March 2024)
Since the 1970s and all over the world, the total fertility rate (i.e. the number of live children the average woman bears in her lifetime) has been falling, dropping under the 2.1 threshold (the replacement rate) below which the population is bound to decline. Today, more than half of the projected increase in the global population between 2022 and 2050 is expected to be concentrated in the eight countries with a fertility rate above 2.1: the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines and Tanzania. Overall, the world’s population will begin to fall around 2060-2070, earlier than we thought, and it will do so not gradually, but almost as steeply as it once rose. The historian examines some of the reasons that may explain the decline in fertility rates and ponders what some of the consequences may be (gifted article, reads in about 10 min).
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Taylor Pearce, Are we asking the right questions about de-dollarisation?
(OMFIF, 8 March 2024)
A hugely important question for the global economy and geopolitics. Some factors make the USD less attractive as the key currency of the financial system, but it nonetheless remains superior to both the euro and renminbi; and experts agree that no fiat currency poses a serious threat to its dominance in the global economy for the foreseeable future. This said, there are two scenarios that could marginalize the role of the USD. (1) A benign one in which China develops an alternative institutional arrangement parallel to the current financial and economic system, with the renminbi at the centre; (2) A more extreme one with an overt geo-economic tilt that excludes the US and seriously erodes the dominance of the dollar. The latter is unlikely (for the moment), but it’s worth noting that the number of countries transacting and trade invoicing in the Chinese currency is growing (free access, 5-6 min).
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Arash Azizi, Change Is Coming to Iran, Just Not the Change We Hoped For
(The New York Times, 11 March 2024)
The historian and author of “What Iranians Want: Women, Life, Freedom” dissects the recent elections and explains why Iran’s policies “are likely to be made more palatable both to its people and to the West, turning the country away from theocracy toward a mundane military authoritarian regime.” A new Iran may therefore be on the horizon, a marked improvement compared to the past, but it won’t be the Iran anti-regime protesters have hoped for (gifted article, reads in 6-8 min).
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Dave Pell, Fraught Milk
(Next Draft, 12 March 2024)
A short comment about a longer article published in The Atlantic (How Raw Milk Went from a Whole Foods Staple to a Conservative Signal), just to prove that everything can now become part of the culture wars, even milk cultures! In a short spell of time, milk in the US went from being the darling of the organic liberals who then gave up on it at the same time when conservatives discovered that raw milk fits neatly inside their worldview skeptical of credentialed expertise (free access, reads in 2-3 min + 7 min of the Atlantic’s article is included).
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Kevin Dickinson, Why memory is more about your future than your past
(Big Think, 13 March 2024)
This is an interview with the neuroscientist who just authored “Why We Remember.” He makes the argument that we tend to see memories as mental recordings, while in reality they are pliable information we can use to better manage the present and conjure future possibilities. Humans evolved the memory system we did because it helps us stay attentive to what is important. This means that whenever we remember something, we alter that memory with our needs, beliefs, and perspectives (free access, reads in 6-7 min).
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