Why ‘recency’ bias is skewing the 2024 global economic outlook. Why November’s election will be a test of US democracy. 7 things on the horizon for 2024. Why change doesn’t have to be rapid to be radical. Death in Davos – the plot thickens.
QUOTE OF THE WEEK
ARTICLE OF THE WEEK
Mohamed El-Erian, Don’t Extrapolate Last Year’s Trends for the Global Economy
(Project Syndicate, 11 January 2024)
Beware of the recency bias! The global economy proved unexpectedly resilient in 2023, leading many analysts to adopt an optimistic outlook for 2024. But in El-Erian’s opinion, the chances of a robust worldwide economic recovery are slim. The two key culprits: (1) the escalating crisis in the Middle East and (2) persistent market volatility caused by the fact that today’s optimism is predominantly driven by a single conviction: central banks will aggressively cut interest rates amid the softest of all soft landings for the US economy. But nothing could be less certain (metered paywall that requires prior free registration, reads in 4-6 min).
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Nahal Toosi, Why the World Is Betting Against American Democracy
(Politico, 15 January 2024)
In a series of conversations with a dozen current and former diplomats in DC, the journalist reports that many see this year’s US presidential election as a test of American democracy. With surprising candour, several ambassadors warn that the GOP-Democratic divide is endangering America’s national security; and of course, they’re worried because the US’s state of being will affect their countries too. The most concerned are the Europeans because of Ukraine. The ones most delighted with the situation: the Russians. They’ll benefit from
the U.S. chaos the flames of which they are fanning (metered paywall, reads in 5 min).
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7 experts attending Davos share what’s on the horizon for 2024
(World Economic Forum, 14 January 2024)
A quick look at what some leading experts think about (1) Deep learning, (2) International treaties protecting investors’ rights at the expense of the environment, (3) Proven interventions that can improve election integrity, fight misinformation and strengthen democracy, (4) The active promotion of public education about the pros and cons of cognitive constructs, (5) An emerging approach to propelling the energy transition that sidestepps legacy institutions, (6) Global competition or co-operation on rare earth and critical minerals, (7) Prospects for the Indian economy (free access, reads in 5-7 min).
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Rebecca Solnit, Slow Change Can Be Radical Change
(Literary Hub, 11 January 2024)
The slowness of change can often be confused with acceptance of the status quo, but the American writer argues that it’s really the opposite. We are impatient creatures, “impatient for the future to arrive and prone to forgetting the past in our urgency to have it all now”, but change is rarely sudden. Getting where we’re going -individually or as a society – “mostly happens step by step with maybe some backsliding, muddle, and stalling, not via one great leap.” It’s all about tiny increments adding up (metered paywall, reads in 6-8 min).
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Emily Adjarian, Death in Davos
(The Browser, 12 January 2023)
We never post work of fiction, but this deserves an exception. A serial thriller about the WEF meeting in Davos which addresses some themes at the core of the Monthly Barometer: geopolitics, green investing, and more. Worth a read and as the plot thickens, we now want to know the ending! (metered paywall, each episode reads in about 15-20 min).
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