To safeguard the positive face of globalisation, build better walls, but don’t forget the bridges. Today’s polycrisis is a reality. A day in our life, with AI. Bridgewater Associates’ best kept investment secret – perhaps there isn’t one. For optimal thinking and even ‘overthinking’ it’s vital to know when to stop.
QUOTE OF THE WEEK
ARTICLE OF THE WEEK
Adrian Wooldridge, If You Want More Globalization, Build Better Walls
(Bloomberg, 31 October 2023)
The “borderless world” we were promised during the heyday of globalization is turning into one of barriers, fences and fortifications. As the columnist argues, “put up this wall and make it impregnable” may well be the way of the future. Today, the world has 74 border walls, six times the number at the end of the Cold War, extending for more than 20,000 miles. And there are fortifications everywhere in our cities and communities (17m Americans live in gated communities while the emerging countries are splitting into a world of slums and a world of walled cities). What to do? Be an idealist (build bridges instead of walls) or a realist (build better walls)? “The great challenge of our time is not to get rid of walls. It is how best to mix walls with bridges so that we can maximize the upside of globalization while always being on guard against the downside” (gifted article, reads in 6-8 min).
Click here to read the full article
Thomas Homer-Dixon, Why so much is going wrong at the same time
(VOX, 18 October 2023)
The notion of polycrisis has caught on but sparked a lot of criticism. Sure: lots of things are going wrong, but does that make it a polycrisis? The political scientist who runs the Polycrisis.org project says yes, arguing that “new phenomena are now reconfiguring and even overwhelming old trends at an accelerating rate”. He thinks that we’ve moved so far and so fast outside our species’ previous experience that many decision-makers don’t have the cognitive frame to grasp our situation. He highlights four major changes that are markers of an unprecedented transformation in humanity’s circumstance. It is their causal interactions that generate a polycrisis and make them prone to ‘cascading failures’ (free access, reads in 10 min).
Click here to read the full article
Hannah Devlin, A Day in the life of AI
(The Guardian, 25 October 2023)
Conversations about AI tend to focus on the future threat it may represent, but the technology is already woven into the fabric of our daily lives. As this article shows, the influence of AI is everywhere – in the food we eat, in the way we spend our money, in the news we read, in our social interactions and more. From the moment we get up to when we go to bed, AI is with us – even during the night (free access, reads in 5-6 min).
Click here to read the full article
Rob Copeland, How Does the World’s Largest Hedge Fund Really Make Its Money?
(The New York Times, 1 November 2023)
Can there be a secret if there is no secret? Bridgewater Associates has always been very secretive about how it invests. Ray Dalio, its founder – portrayed as someone incredibly skilled at making money from, big-picture global economic or political changes – asserts he’s discovered “the holy grail” of investing. What is it? Three money managers and analysts, each with a vastly different background, took three different passes at the mystery of how the world’s largest hedge fund picked its positions. Nobody quite understands what’s going on at Bridgewater. Maybe there is no secret! (Gifted article, reads in 10 min+)
Click here to read the full article
Pablo Hubacher Haerle, If thinking is rational, what makes overthinking irrational?
(Psyche, 24 October 2023)
People who chronically overthink can become trapped in seemingly endless loops of worrying and ruminating, affecting their work, relationships, and other aspects of their lives. But is there really such a thing as ‘thinking too much’? This philosophical perspective on overthinking offers fresh insights into the mental processes involved in anxiety and OCD (obsessive-compulsive disorder). The proposed conclusion: “the epistemic problem with overthinking lies in its relation to success”. Overthinking is fruitless thinking and good thinkers know where to stop (free access, reads in 7-9 min).
Click here to read the full article
