AI will matter ‘a lot’ for the economy.  Only a carbon price can deliver net-zero.  Don’t underestimate political turbulence – it’s today’s reality. Social media as we know it is fissuring.  By harnessing the power of neuroplasticity we can make meaningful and lasting brain changes ourselves.

QUOTE OF THE WEEK

“Nobody really knows how big an impact A.I. will have (…) The best guess is that it will probably matter a lot.” (Paul Krugman in the article of the week)

ARTICLE OF THE WEEK

Paul Krugman, Will A.I. Transform the Economy, and if So, How?
(The New York Times, 3 October 2023)
Nobody really knows how big an impact AI will have, but Krugman does a superb job at delineating what it might be with brevity and in digestible terms. The starting point: generative AI is a bit of a disappointment, but it doesn’t have to be “true” AI to be a big deal for the economy. His best guess is that “it will probably matter a lot.” It will most likely increase the growth rate of productivity (15% over a decade, according to Goldman Sachs, seems plausible). It won’t lead to mass unemployment and will create new forms of employment but will displace jobs (notably high-end admin jobs) (gifted article, reads in 6-8 min).
Click here to read the full article

 

Eric Roston, Carbon Pricing Is Key to Delivering Global Emissions Cuts, IMF Says
(Bloomberg, 2 October 2023)
For any country around the world, the crux is to find politically feasible ways to zero out emissions without taking on crushing loads of debt. The IMF calls this quandary a trilemma, but it just issued a report arguing that a carbon price can anchor policies that tackle climate change without ballooning national debt. The devil is in the details of each national economy’s characteristics, but carbon pricing policies, such as a tax or permit-trading market, are already in place in 49 developed or emerging-market countries, and another 23 are planning them. The most expensive option is to do nothing which would add 0.8% to 2% of GDP a year to public debt, as the cost of losses and adaptation mount (gifted article, 6-8 min).
Click here to read the full article

 

Jack Goldstone and Peter Turchin, Welcome To The ‘Turbulent Twenties’
(Noéma, 10 September 2023)
Deeply pessimistic but plausible – a must-read for those who underestimate US (and Western) political risk. The two researchers predicted political upheaval in America in the 2020s, after one of them published 30 years ago a simple model to determine a country’s vulnerability to political crisis. They attribute the responsibility for the current situation to “elites’ capture” – “the social contract has unraveled in favour of a contract between government and business that has underfunded public services but generously rewarded capital gains and corporate profits.” They argue that “selfish elites lead the way to revolutions” and they project that “almost any election scenario this fall is likely to lead to popular protests on a scale we have not seen this century”. Look for solutions at the end of the article (metered paywall, reads in about 15 min).
Click here to read the full article

Shubham Agarwal, Great news — social media is falling apart
(Insider, 3 October 2023)
Welcome to the Great Social Media Splintering!  People are spending less and less time on traditional social media platforms, migrating instead to close-knit private circles such as group chats, and a new crop of platforms that have emerged in the past few years. Some researchers predict that social media’s future might be “more private and more fragmented,” envisioning a “pluriverse” consisting of existing platforms and an ecosystem of “very small online platforms”. In short: the future of social media is looking more like a network of platforms that offer people a customized experience (metered paywall, 7-9 min).
Click here to read the full article

Melissa Hogenboom, How I rewired my brain in six weeks
(BBC Future, 19 September 2023)
This is about the power of neuroplasticity. A science journalist goes on a six-week brain-altering course to investigate with clinical psychologists and neuroscientists whether there’s a way we can influence meaningful brain change ourselves. There is growing evidence we can. Everyday changes to our lives can alter our brains and change how they work, strengthening crucial connections in our brain, and keep our mind healthier in the process. Mindfulness (with meditation exercises), for example, can change the brain. Or physical activity: it facilitates plasticity. Practicing new skills and regularly exposing ourselves to new situations as well: all these help the brain to continue to adapt and grow (free access, 7-8 min).
Click here to read the full article