The global economy is re-aligning under the influence of geopolitics. Domestic populist backlash is putting further pressure on globalisation. That global population will peak in 2060’s or 70’s is almost a given, its implications are less clear. Revelations from within the world of management consulting. “Lies, damned lies and statistics.” (Mark Twain).
QUOTE OF THE WEEK
ARTICLE OF THE WEEK
Shawn Donnan and Enda Curran, The Global Economy Enters an Era of Upheaval
(Bloomberg, 18 September 2023)
The tensions between US-China tensions and Russia’s war in Ukraine are already swinging investments to like-minded countries – a sign that companies’ decisions are largely influenced by geopolitical considerations. The proof is in the pudding: on earnings calls and in corporate filings, S&P 500 CEOs have used the word “geopolitics” almost 12,000 times in 2023, or almost three times as much as they did just two years ago. This articles sumps the conclusions of an analysis of UN foreign-direct investment data points to a world reorganizing into rival – though still linked – blocs that reflect UN votes on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Read on (gifted article, around 10 min).
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Barry Eichengreen, Is this how globalization ends?
(Prospect Magazine, 6 September 2023)
Our interconnected, hyper-globalised economy survived the financial crisis, Brexit, Donald Trump, and the pandemic. Now it faces a new kind of threat, argues the economist, who thinks that this time it could inflict a fatal blow on globalisation. What is it? The populist backlashes. Successive crises, and policymakers’ management of those crises, have created mounting popular discontent with the global economic system. In addition, issues of national security (that supersede economic interest) are now compounding the problems faced by globalisation by constraining trade and investment (metered paywall, reads in 10-13 min).
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The World’s Population May Peak in Your Lifetime. What Happens Next?
(The New York Times, 18 September 2023)
All predictions agree on one thing: the world population will peak soon (in the 2060s or 2070s), meaning that children born today will see the end of global population growth. A key point: humanity will not reach a plateau and then stabilize, but will shrink immediately, and nobody knows what global depopulation will mean and will entail. Researchers who study growth and progress assume that since innovations and discoveries are made by people, there’ll be less of them in a world with fewer people in it. Hence, they argue, the loss of so much human potential may threaten humanity’s continued path toward better lives. But is this too simplistic? (gifted article, reads in 7-9 min, great visuals).
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Garrison Lovely, Confessions of a McKinsey Whistleblower
(The Nation, 5 September 2023)
A former employee of the elite management consulting firm reveals the ugly side of the business and goes public after realizing (or feeling) that it is “an amoral institution willing to do almost anything for almost anyone who will pay them.” A memorable quote: “It (McKinsey) claims to be a “values-based organization” but “after a year and a half, I understood that not only does McKinsey fail to make the world better, it often colludes with those who make the world worse” (metered paywall, reads in 6-8 min).
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John Lanchester, Get a rabbit
(London Review of Books, 21 September 2023)
A demanding, but rewarding, review of four books about numbers and statistics, which are central to modern politics and governance, and the ways we talk about them. While public discussions were once about values and beliefs – about what a society wants to see when it looks at itself in the mirror, they have increasingly turned to arguments about numbers, data, statistics. They are often used to lie… (metered paywall, reads in about 15 min).
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