Resolve and realism are needed now to respond to the challenges facing the global economy. The Wagner mutiny has narrowed Putin’s options. AI and SEO demands are exerting a lowest common denominator effect on internet content. The time bomb of real estate debt is already ticking. The science of food is far from exact.
QUOTE OF THE WEEK
“In the language of chess, Putin is in zugzwang. Any move he makes looks set to worsen his position.” (John Lough in the second article of this week’s selection)
ARTICLE OF THE WEEK
Agustin Carstens, A Time for Resolve and Realism
(Speech delivered at the BIS Annual General Meeting, Basel, 25 June 2023)
The General Manager of the BIS (the Bank for International Settlements which serves as a bank and forum for central banks) focuses on the current state of the global economy, the key risks to the outlook and the roles that all arms of policy must play to meet today’s challenges. It is full of pertinent insights, not only for policymakers but also for investors. Carstens makes it plain that the global economy is at a critical juncture, observing that for the first time in decades, inflation and financial instability have emerged in tandem. If not addressed promptly, these short-run challenges could entrench themselves as long-run problems (free access – video + text, the link to the full annual report can be found at the bottom).
Click here to read the full article
John Lough, Putin has limited options after the Prigozhin mutiny
(Chatham House, 26 June 2023)
Among the plethora of relevant opinions destined to shed light on the recent aborted mutiny in Russia (what it means – what it entails), this one stands out for its brevity (a 3-min read) and insightful conclusion. Like almost everyone else, Lough points out that the failed march on Moscow has dramatically weakened Vladimir Putin’s personal authority and his grip on power. But he concludes brilliantly: “In the language of chess, Putin is in zugzwang. Any move he makes looks set to worsen his position” (free access).
Click here to read the full article
Ed Zitron, The Internet Is Already Broken
(Where is your Ed at? 20 June 2023)
The public relations expert doesn’t mince his words: “email, the single most popular product on the internet, has become unquestionably poisoned” – a place where “we are continually productized and monetized.” He argues that Google is the culprit because it treats search as something to be manipulated rather than a mass-curation of “the best” of what’s online, allowing in the process SEO expert “hustlers” to grow into a $77bn industry where you pay someone to tell you how to change the things you want to say into what Google regards as “interesting” or “good.” “The result is an internet littered with austere and joyless copy, engineered to reach a high rank on a particular search — meaning that the most popular results are, ironically, usually boring, low quality, and in some cases totally useless.” The endgame: “AI is going to turn the internet into a porridge of low-quality service journalism and/or ecommerce marketing” (free access – reads in about 10 min).
Click here to read the full article
Natalie Wong, John Gittelssohn, Jack Sidders and Shawna Kwan, The World’s Empty Office Buildings Have Become a Debt Time Bomb
(Bloomberg, 23 June 2023)
Another reminder regarding a major issue which we’ve been putting forward for a while. You will have been warned! “The creeping rot inside commercial real estate is like a dark seam running through the global economy. Even as stock markets rally and investors are hopeful that the fastest interest-rate increases in a generation will ebb, the trouble in property is set to play out for years. The authors think that a tipping point is coming, notably in the US where about $1.4 trillion of commercial real estate loans are due this year and next (gifted article – reads in 6-8 min).
Click here to read the full article
Anupam Jena and Christopher Worsham, The Science of What We Eat Is Failing Us
(The New York Times, 19 June 2023)
The two researchers from the Harvard Medical School and authors of the newly published “Random Acts of Medicine: The Hidden Forces That Sway Doctors, Impact Patients and Shape Our Health” argue that we cannot be very confident in some of the findings related to the science of food. That’s because existing studies are plagued by methodological problems. Even though diet (and also exercise) is clearly an important part of a healthy lifestyle, it’s challenging to accurately estimate the specific effect of making any change based on how most nutrition (and lifestyle) research is currently conducted. They recommend making greater use of natural experiments, like economists do (gifted article – reads in 7-9 min).
Click here to read the full article
