Is China readier for a disorderly world than the US? It depends who you ask. Can AI spur growth without greater unemployment? Some think so. Whose to blame for the ongoing trend of the workforce quitting their jobs? Maybe the managers. Are our brains tricking us into believing everything has got worse? Looks like it. “Manners maketh man” – but only if we also know when to question them.
QUOTE OF THE WEEK
“Instead of seeking to save the system, Beijing is preparing for its failure.” (Mark Leonard in the article of the week)
ARTICLE OF THE WEEK
Mark Leonard, China Is Ready for a World of Disorder – America Is Not
(Foreign Affairs, July/August 2023)
Two competing visions of tomorrow’s world. Most Western leaders try to preserve the existing ‘rules-based international order’ by updating some of its key features and incorporating additional actors. By contrast, China is readying itself for a world defined by disorder, asymmetry, and fragmentation (today’s world). “Instead of seeking to save the system, Beijing is preparing for its failure.” China’s perspective is shared by many countries, especially in the so-called ‘global south’. Rich and dense. Leonard concludes: “If the world truly is entering a phase of disorder, China could be best placed to prosper” (metered paywall limited to 1 free article/month that requires prior registration – reads in 8-10 min).
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Ethan Ilzetzki and Suryaansh Jain, The impact of artificial intelligence on growth and employment
(CEPR, 20 June 2023)
If economists have it right, this is very good news indeed! Most European experts involved in a recent survey destined to predict the impact of AI on global economic growth and unemployment rates in high-income countries over the upcoming decade think that AI is likely to boost global growth to 4–6% per annum (relative to an average of 4% over the past few decades). Equally, a majority believes that AI is unlikely to affect employment rates in high-income countries. One caveat: convictions are low because AI is still in its infancy (free access – reads in 6-8 min).
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Jon Clifton, Why the World Can’t Quit Quiet Quitting
(LinkedIn, 21 June 2023)
Gallup’s CEO says it plainly: the ‘obituary’ that “quiet quitting is dead (because of the deteriorating economy) is wrong. In fact, he says, “almost four-fifths of the global workforce has either quietly or loudly quit, which costs the world’s economy almost USD 9 trillion per year.” In his opinion, this amounts to an “emotional recession” that boils down to bad managers (free access – reads in 4-5 min).
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Adam Mastrioanni, Your Brain Has Tricked You Into Thinking Everything Is Worse
(The New York Times, 20 June 2023)
All over the world, people tend to share a sense of moral decline that doesn’t reflect reality. The experimental psychologist argues this is due to a ‘bug’ (a set of cognitive biases) in people’s brains that causes them to perceive a fall from grace even when it hasn’t happened. He’s found evidence for it, published about it and is the first to investigate the pervasive belief all over the world that things have gotten worse. Read on to grasp the role that biased memory and biased exposure play in this (gifted article – reads in 5-7 min).
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Julian Baggini, Manners matter—philosophy tells us why
(Prospect, 14 June 2023)
The purpose of etiquette (which, like all aspects of ethics, varies across time and place) remains constant: to provide a set of shared, widely understood and accepted rules that keep society functioning harmoniously, as long as most of us follow them most of the time. This said, manners are moral, and so is the subversion of them: most of the time we have a moral obligation to observe social etiquette, but occasionally we have a moral obligation to flout it (free access that requires registration – reads in 5-6 min).
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