Will 2023 be year of economic crisis? Will India replace China? It’s not a done deal. How profound is the politicisation of anti-ESG attitudes in the investment process? What does future AI look like? Very human. Taking back mountains.
QUOTE OF THE WEEK
ARTICLE OF THE WEEK
Anat Admati, Jim O’Neill, Eswar Prasad, Will 2023 Be a Year of Economic Crisis?
(Project Syndicate, 15 December 2022)
The response from three prominent economists. Admati worries about two main things: (1) the fragility of the financial system, “dangerous, and distorted as it has ever been” and (2) “financialized capitalism” which has “undermined, overwhelmed, and corrupted democratic governments”. Jim O’Neill remains a perennial optimist while acknowledging that with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the unexpected surge in inflation, “we are all so scarred that we are probably not ready for positive surprises.” Prasad affirms that “next year is shaping up to be a rough one for the global economy” with weakening growth momentum across the board, the fallout from a series of self-inflicted policy wounds, and severe constraints on policymakers’ room for maneuver (metered paywall that may require registration, hence our rather long summary which encapsulates the main ingredients of food-for-thought – 7 min).
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Arvind Subramanian and Josh Felman, Why India Can’t Replace China
(Foreign Affairs, 9 December 2022)
It seems that India is on the cusp of a historic boom. A big question for next year, and those that follow, is whether the country will emerge as China’s replacement – the next big growth story. As the two economists (one having worked in the Indian government) explain, this is far from a done deal as the barriers to New Delhi’s next boom abound. Their conclusion: “In the end, whether India turns into the next China is not merely a question of global economic forces or geopolitics. It is something that will require a dramatic policy shift by New Delhi itself” (metered paywall that may require registration – 6-8 min).
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Sheelah Kolhatkar, The C.E.O. of Anti-Woke, Inc.
(The New Yorker, 12 December 2022)
An in-depth article to understand how anti-ESG sentiments are growing and the way in which the whole investment process is slowly but powerfully getting politicized. All seen through the lens of Vivek Ramaswamy, who’s become a powerful enemy of the “cultural totalitarianism” enforced by liberal élites, and in the process is becoming a right-wing star. The biotech founder turned investor – Strive Asset Management (which he founded with the backing of Peter Thiel) wouldn’t ask the companies it invests in to “push political agendas” – is now in the business of denouncing “corporate virtue-signalling” on climate change and racial justice, and ESG more generally (metered paywall that may require prior registration – reads in about 15 min).
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Max Roser, The brief history of AI: The world has changed fast – what might be next?
(Our World in Data, 12 December 2022)
The programme director at the Oxford Martin School retraces the brief history of computers and artificial intelligence to see what we can expect for the future. The technology has come a long way in a very short time (just a few decades) and we now have AI systems with abilities to produce photorealistic images and interpret and generate language. He predicts that by 2040, there will likely be a transformative AI system that can match the capabilities of the human brain (free access – reads in 6-8 min).
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David Goodman, Taking Back the Mountains
(The New York Times, 14 December 2022)
Something we’ll be looking to do on the occasion of our winter Summit of Minds, and an important debate in all ski and mountain resorts. Big resorts are crowded, pricey and exclusive. But, as this article explains, some skiers and snowboarders are trying to reclaim their sports by building a culture that is more inclusive and sustainable (gifted article – reads in less than 10 min).
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