Multiple supply shocks are contributing to stagflation – only tech innovation could counter this. Why the war in Ukraine has pushed food prices to an all-time high and some countries to the brink of a dire humanitarian crisis. Multiple conspiracy theories now underpin the decision making in the Kremlin. How a fictitious Russia in 2028, as described in a novel written 16 years ago, can help explain today’s real Russia. Ideas from moral philosophy and animal psychology suggest that knowing right from wrong might not be exclusively human.
QUOTE OF THE WEEK
ARTICLE OF THE WEEK
Nouriel Roubini, The Gathering Stagflationary Storm
(Project Syndicate, 25 April 2022)
The underlying reason for the current bout of stagflation is a series of negative aggregate supply shocks – most notably (1) the pandemic, (2) the war in Ukraine and (3) China’s draconian lockdowns – that have curtailed production and increased costs. But even without these, the global economy faces serious and structural headwinds that contribute to stagflation: the (partial) retreat from globalization, global ageing (that reduces the supply of labour) combined with the backlash against immigration, climate change (increase in food prices and other commodities). Roubini identifies 11 of them! The big counterforce and unknown is the role of tech innovation – disinflationary (metered paywall – 7-8 min).
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Daniel Maxwell, War in Ukraine is pushing global acute hunger to the highest level in this century
(The Conversation, 27 April 2022)
This is such a consequential story with such far-reaching consequences that it’s worth highlighting it again (as we did last week). The author, part of an independent group of experts who research famines and extreme food security crises, explains why the war in Ukraine has pushed food prices to near all-time highs, and why a global supply shortfall could lead nations to adopt measures such as export bans that further distort food markets. He makes the case that the ripple effects of the conflict could lead to the worsening of humanitarian crises around the world (free access – reads in 6-8 min).
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Ilya Yablokov, The Five Conspiracy Theories That Putin Has Weaponized
(The New York Times, 25 April 2022)
The co-author of “Russia Today and Conspiracy Theories: People, Power, Politics on RT” asserts that conspiratorial thinking has taken complete hold of Russia and is now the motivating force behind the Kremlin’s decisions. Here are five of the most prevalent theories that the president has endorsed: (1) The West wants to carve up Russia’s territory; (2) NATO has turned Ukraine into a military camp; (3) The opposition wants to destroy Russia from within — and is backed by the West; (4) The global LGBTQ movement is a plot against Russia; (5) Ukraine is preparing bioweapons to use against Russia (metered paywall that may require prior registration – reads in 7-9 min).
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Michael Scott Moore, Day of the Oprichnik, 16 Years Later
(n + 1 Magazine, 27 April 2022)
Not unconnected to the above. As is so often the case, a novel (the meta-discipline by excellence!) written years ago can shed much light on today’s world. The Day of the Oprichnik does just this for Putin’s Russia. First published in 2006, it takes place in 2028 in a Russia that has become wealthy, dominant, ultra-modern but also intensely revanchist and dominated by staunch reactionaries and traditionalists (like the political philosopher Aleksandr Dugin today). Sorokin saw in his satire and caricature many of today’s social and political currents. He also happened to be a victim of them – some of his books were destroyed and he was charged as a “pornographer” (metered paywall – reads in 10 min).
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James Hutton, Animals Feel What’s Right and Wrong, Too
(Nautilus, 13 April 2022)
The philosopher argues that it’s time to take moral emotion in animals seriously, and he explains why. A range of experiments proves that animals (dogs in particular) show an aversion to disparities in reward, and therefore sense unfairness when they aren’t getting the same rewards as their peers. This, anchored in two big ideas – one from moral philosophy and the other from animal psychology – suggests that a feeling for what’s right and wrong, might really be within reach for some non-human animals (metered paywall – reads in about 10 min).
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