Putin will stop at nothing. Endgame scenarios from a Western perspective plus one from Russia. Why TikTok suits the chaos of war and helps hinder the truth. How youth activism plans to wrench up the tension of climate politics to a new level – before it’s too late.
QUOTE OF THE WEEK
ARTICLE OF THE WEEK
Maura Reynolds, ‘Yes, He Would’: Fiona Hill on Putin and Nukes
(Politico, 28 February 2022)
A much-respected, clear-eyed Russia analyst shares her views on Putin’s actions in Ukraine. She explains why we are de facto in a third World War and details some of the dangers ahead. She argues that Putin is increasingly operating emotionally and likely to use all the weapons at his disposal, including nuclear ones. “Every time you think, ‘No, he wouldn’t, would he?’ Well, yes, he would” she says. “And he wants us to know that, of course. It’s not that we should be intimidated and scared…. We have to prepare for those contingencies.” The key take-away: Putin will go all the way (A must read – free access – 10 min+).
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Ross Douhat, Looking for an Endgame in Ukraine
(The New York Times, 2 March 2022)
In the fog of war, thinking about the endgame is perilous and tricky. Three broad scenarios that currently circulate in the Western world shed some light on what might be coming: (1) A regime change in Moscow – the most desirable and the most unlikely, by far; (2) A brutal Russian victory and grinding occupation (read the next article below to get the Russian perspective), (3) A swift cease-fire followed by peace on not-entirely-ideal terms (metered paywall that may require prior registration – 6-8 min).
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Andrey Sheshentsov, Russia-Ukraine: Quo Vadis?
(Valdai Club, 26 February 2022)
And here is the Russian ‘official’ scenario (the Valdai club was founded at the instigation of Putin in 2004 – we were part of it in the early years): “Emotions about the current acute phase of the crisis will subside, and negotiations will inevitably resume. Russia will move the security frontier away from its borders, deeper towards the West. It’s most likely that Ukraine will become the third member of the union between Russia and Belarus. “If the American threat to create a support system for the Ukrainian underground with the deployment of camps on the territory of the states of Eastern Europe begins to materialize, Russia will have in mind a symmetrical response: heavy pressure on the countries of Eastern Europe.” Read on to dispel any illusion about what’s coming next (free access – 5-6 min).
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Chris Stokel-Walker, TikTok Was Designed for War
(Wired, 3 March 2022)
Russia’s tragic and murderous invasion of Ukraine is also playing out online. The current conflict exhibits a kind of social media war which is fuelled by TikTok’s transformative effect on the old norms of tech – it has created a stream of war footage the likes of which we have never seen before. As the article shows, TikTok’s design and algorithm are proving ideal for the messiness of war but are also a nightmare in terms of the quest for truth (metered paywall – reads in 7-8 min).
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Andrew Marantz, The Youth Movement Trying to Revolutionize Climate Politics
(The New Yorker, 28 February 2022)
Sunrise – a youth-led climate-justice group which models itself on the civil-rights movement of the 50s and the 60s – has already shifted the conventional wisdom about climate change. Now it wants to create a mass movement, combining street protest with policy negotiation, “while there’s still time”. This is a rather long article (reads in 15 min) which corroborates a point we’ve been making often: activism is getting more ‘active’ and sophisticated – it will be a defining feature of the years to come (metered paywall).
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