COVID-19 NOTE

A great deal of data but not much certainty. Exit strategies will be even harder than lockdown. Markets seem heartened by resolute government and central bank response and the hope that we are approaching the peak. COVID-19 Economic and Epidemiological Impact - Analysed in just a few gobbets for time-starved, over-solicited decision-makers   We are bombarded daily with a relentless [...]

The relation between restrictive measures and negative impact on GDP is not linear. The fallout from negative impact on ’social’ consumption will be long-lasting, normal life won’t start again ‘just like that’. Some stabilisation in Europe as US becomes the pandemic epicentre. COVID-19 Economic and Epidemiological Impact - Analysed in just a few gobbets for time-starved, over-solicited decision-makers    The [...]

Europe is still the epicentre but the pandemic is fast becoming global. COVID-19 Economic and Epidemiological Impact - Analysed in just a few gobbets for time-starved, over-solicited decision-makers   Even though Europe remains the epicentre, followed closely by the US, this is the first week that the pandemic became truly global. Almost every single country is now at risk of [...]

The real danger of Covid-19 lies in the exponential power of compounded growth rates and asymptomatic transmission. For these reasons, lock down and extreme social distancing measures, still seen by some as an overreaction, are the only valid reaction. COVID-19 Economic and Epidemiological Impact - Analysed in just a few gobbets for time-starved, over-solicited decision-makers   At the moment, in [...]

From an economic standpoint: the more efficient the containment measures to slow down the epidemic, the greater the economic pain they inflict. COVID-19 Economic and Epidemiological Impact - Analysed in just a few gobbets for time-starved, over-solicited decision-makers   Covid-19 now affects more than 100 countries – in most of these the virus is spreading at an exponential rate as [...]

Economic and Epidemiological Impact Analysed in just a few gobbets for time-starved, over-solicited decision-makers From an economic perspective, Covid-19 = demand shock + supply shock + financial shock. It could very well halve global growth this year: 1.5% instead of a previous 2.9%, according to the OECD. The spread of Covid-19 follows an exponential pattern: the number of cases [...]