Monthly Barometer

Greater divergence – social, economic, (geo)political, and generational – will characterise our world in 2021. Technology deployed to sustainable ends and as an economic stimulant [...]

Effective vaccines are just around the corner, not so a widespread rapid economic recovery – its K shape means that for many sectors the return [...]

China has ‘controlled’ Covid-19 and is beginning to reap the economic benefits. In the rich world, up to now, policy has staved off economic disaster [...]

In the rich world, autumn COVID seems a little less deadly, but for all that no less devastating for the world’s poor. In terms of the economic recovery, K is either for kickstart or kick-down-and-out, depending on the industry. Rising geopolitical tensions and rivalry are filling the void left by a dissolving global order.

COVID-19 will be with us well into until 2021. Austerity has been replaced by unprecedented government spending, some of which, combined with private investment, could [...]

Even as the pandemic continues to grow its longer term economic and societal impacts are starting to emerge. Business’ environmental costs must be on future balance sheets. With a vital new deal Europe’s position gains in credibility amidst deteriorating US-China relations.

Economists disagree over the shape and timing of a recovery. Re-opening is far from a given and attitudes towards meat, oil and the dollar may [...]

Rising unemployment, rumbling US-China tensions, social contract under pressure. Women leaders and greater EU integration might have some answers. Wide-ranging fiscal and monetary policy measures [...]

Wide-ranging fiscal and monetary policy measures have succeeded in averting a global financial meltdown. To do so, by the end of this year, OECD countries [...]

Covid-19 is inflicting shock of an unprecedented nature on the global economy while exacerbating many pre-existing societal failings and inequalities. Governments have no choice but [...]

To give you a sense of which global issues will shape the months to come, here are the buzzwords that appeared most frequently in the [...]

To give you a sense of which global issues will shape the months to come, here are the buzzwords that appeared most frequently in the Monthly Barometer and Weekly Selections of 2019 (in no particular order) ...

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  The trade war is like a huge exogenous shock inflicted on the economy – the equivalent of a ‘surprise’ tax hike on consumers that [...]

An increasingly precarious global economy makes recession look more and more likely. Downward pressure on interests rates suggest the probable Japanification of many rich economies. Although response to the intense climate crisis equates to investment opportunity the market continues to underprice its risk. High levels of societal concern over climate change and AI-provoked job losses will make government intervention inevitable.

L’économie mondiale se trouve dans une situation de plus en plus précaire: en période de ralentissement majeur, avec un risque de récession qui augmente. En [...]

Il est de plus en plus évident que le commerce et la géopolitique jouent un rôle clé dans la croissance économique mondiale, en particulier dans [...]

It is increasingly evident that trade and geopolitics are throwing a major spanner in the works of global economic growth, affecting in particular manufacturing and [...]

La guerre commerciale entre les États-Unis et la Chine est le grand sujet économique du moment et le plus grand risque pour les perspectives de [...]

The trade war between the US and China is the current big economic story and the greatest risk to the global economic outlook. It’s hurting [...]

Récession ou pas ? C’est la grande question de l’agenda économique du mois d’avril. Y-a-t-il eu trop de morosité ? La croissance mondiale semble se raffermir, [...]

Recession or not a recession? That is April’s big economic question. Has there been too much gloom? Global growth seems to be firming up, the [...]

What a difference a month makes! Although growth continues to slow (gently) in Asia, Europe and the US, the global economy is in no worse [...]

The global economy continues to head downwards while the financial markets are enjoying a spectacular recovery. This disconnect is best explained by the situation in [...]

The global economy’s upbeat tempo as 2018 opened has slowed to a downbeat tone as the year draws to a close. Global growth is losing [...]

Global economic data continues to soften. The next few months will be characterised by a synchronised slowdown – the exact opposite of the synchronised upswing [...]

The global economic outlook is deteriorating, while a combination of (1) global debt overhang and (2) rising tensions (not only trade) between the US and [...]

The euphoria over a synchronized global upswing has expired. Global growth remains solid, but it is imbalanced and fragile: emerging markets (EM),Europe and Japan are [...]

Trade tensions in general and the escalating trade war between the US and China in particular are transforming economic tailwinds into headwinds, notably in the [...]

Mounting concerns about trade are exacerbating the deceleration in global growth expectations. If it continues, the current tit-for-tat escalation could become reminiscent of the Smoot-Hawley [...]

Global economic growth remains robust, but it is levelling off. Tighter monetary conditions and supply-side constraints mean that the peak in global economic activity is [...]

Global economic growth remains robust, but it is levelling off. In systemically important countries like Japan or regions like the Eurozone, 2018 won’t be as [...]

For the first time in months, economic risks are on the downside. While most forecasts for global growth remain buoyant(at about 4% this year), there [...]

2018 begins with a marked dissonance between improving economics and deteriorating politics – the greatest risk to the global economy. The current, almost perfectly synchronized,economic [...]