Monthly Barometer

It is increasingly evident that trade and geopolitics are throwing a major spanner in the works of global economic growth, affecting in particular manufacturing and [...]

La guerre commerciale entre les États-Unis et la Chine est le grand sujet économique du moment et le plus grand risque pour les perspectives de [...]

The trade war between the US and China is the current big economic story and the greatest risk to the global economic outlook. It’s hurting [...]

Récession ou pas ? C’est la grande question de l’agenda économique du mois d’avril. Y-a-t-il eu trop de morosité ? La croissance mondiale semble se raffermir, [...]

Recession or not a recession? That is April’s big economic question. Has there been too much gloom? Global growth seems to be firming up, the [...]

What a difference a month makes! Although growth continues to slow (gently) in Asia, Europe and the US, the global economy is in no worse [...]

The global economy continues to head downwards while the financial markets are enjoying a spectacular recovery. This disconnect is best explained by the situation in [...]

The global economy’s upbeat tempo as 2018 opened has slowed to a downbeat tone as the year draws to a close. Global growth is losing [...]

Global economic data continues to soften. The next few months will be characterised by a synchronised slowdown – the exact opposite of the synchronised upswing [...]

The global economic outlook is deteriorating, while a combination of (1) global debt overhang and (2) rising tensions (not only trade) between the US and [...]

The euphoria over a synchronized global upswing has expired. Global growth remains solid, but it is imbalanced and fragile: emerging markets (EM),Europe and Japan are [...]

Trade tensions in general and the escalating trade war between the US and China in particular are transforming economic tailwinds into headwinds, notably in the [...]

Mounting concerns about trade are exacerbating the deceleration in global growth expectations. If it continues, the current tit-for-tat escalation could become reminiscent of the Smoot-Hawley [...]

Global economic growth remains robust, but it is levelling off. Tighter monetary conditions and supply-side constraints mean that the peak in global economic activity is [...]

Global economic growth remains robust, but it is levelling off. In systemically important countries like Japan or regions like the Eurozone, 2018 won’t be as [...]

For the first time in months, economic risks are on the downside. While most forecasts for global growth remain buoyant(at about 4% this year), there [...]

2018 begins with a marked dissonance between improving economics and deteriorating politics – the greatest risk to the global economy. The current, almost perfectly synchronized,economic [...]