Monthly Barometer

The end of US exceptionalism. The folly of Trump’s tariffs. Market troubles will endure. Extreme scenarios on the cards. Europe’s awakening. A ceasefire - but then what? What does the MAGA crowd think?[...]

Reality proving worse than imaginings. Is the US heading towards “competitive authoritarianism’? With tariffs and inflation risks, investors less gung-ho on US exceptionalism. A disintegrating international system. Negotiations over Ukraine’s future - without Ukraine or Europe. An AI arms race where winning trumps everything else. Good fallout from DOGE?[...]

A divergent economic picture. Interest rates higher for longer. Trump’s unpredictability could turn US good news to bad. How sustainable is MAGA inspired investment strategy? A tough road ahead for China. The climate paradox: as climate crises rage, green policies go into retreat. The rise and rise of singledom.[...]

Global fallout from Trumps new ‘policy’ of uncertainty. France is down, but not out and not Greece. What are Putin’s limits? Europe must now pay its way - but how? COP29 - too little too late. But tech could still save the day.[...]

Low growth and high debt sum up the global economic outlook. The disruptive potential of tariffs. Price inflation and grievances. The BRICS have a new agenda. Yet, geopolitics are still being discounted. US$ remains difficult to do without. The wind has gone out of climate investment. The Japanification of Europe. For sustained growth, institutions still matter - a lot.[...]

Interests rates will be a bit higher for much longer. European governments have little choice when it comes to fiscal discipline, but must also rise to the challenge of investing in innovation and competitiveness. China’s response to the challenge of slower economic growth but beware weak domestic demand. Escalating violence and an unwinnable war. Almost everything can be a target and/or potential weapon. The division of the sexes. AI good but not always better.[...]

Interest rates coming down. Foreign investors concerns about China. Europe trilemma. Singaporean PM concerns about the middle class. Plunging fertility rates. Tech: enough is enough? Russia-Ukraine stalemate. Sudan: the normalisation of chaos. And the normalisation of risks.[...]

A shifting landscape for the US election. Economies cooling, halting and a cause for concern: US, China and Europe respectively. Luxury: a little less alluring. Inflation tamed but still in flux. Deglobalisation is happening - except in sport. What’s happening with AI and productivity? The ascendancy of the far right.[...]

Democracy and market efficiency. Fiscal sustainability and political risk. The far right on the rise in Europe. Confidence is fundamental - and fickle. The global economic and geopolitical impact of the US elections. Extreme heat is bad for growth. Some Chinese HNWI are on the run - with their money.[...]

Confusion over interest rates. Tariffs and tit for tat trade war. Global economic fallout from China’s repressed domestic demand. Rising concern over geopolitics. Europe at risk. Green backlash notwithstanding, ‘greening’ almost everything is inevitable and must be paid for. Be neither over optimistic about AI’s impact on growth nor over pessimistic about its impact on the labour force - at least not yet.[...]

Global growth: "Tepid twenties". Rates: "higher for longer" goes on. The US economy relative strength: a problem for the rest of the world. Trade policies: a “race to the bottom”. The high risk of a ”Great Reversal”. Climate action is an economic no-brainer. Ukraine in a critical situation, victim of an “anti-hegemonic coalition”. Global rearmament on steroids. Four canaries in the mine.[...]

Industrial policies are everywhere. Three recent warnings about global over-indebtedness. Central banks and regulators worry about climate change. Will there be a US soft landing or not? Immigration in rescue of the US economy. The risk of Europe becoming ungovernable. Geopolitical insights and “selective compassion”. AI euphoria. Four canaries in the mine.[...]

Short-term economic outlook looking better than expected. Public finances looking unsustainable. What would a Trump victory look like? Industrial policies changing how business is done. Russia’s waiting game in Ukraine. Galloping global heating heralds the early stage of a climate emergency. Just green isn’t enough, green transition must be fair too. Is it India’s moment? [...]

It’s all about conflating risks. A lacklustre global economy. Don’t bank on too many rate cuts. Geopolitics:escalating? The dangers of climate ‘inactivism’. The potency of the three “Ps”, aided and abetted by AI & disinformation. The US - fractured. Beware the demographics. [...]

The 2023 predictions that got away. As for 2024: geopolitical risks are here to stay; security will continue to trump the rest; tech innovation will go on expanding faster and faster; green will re-bound and the US election will be the most consequential event of the year. [...]

The global economy defies ‘like-the-past’ models - they don’t work anymore. Controlling public debt and austerity are as politically thorny as ever. Fossil fuels will go, but not without a fight. Migration: an economic must, but a political minefield. Why Western populism weighs in for Putin against Ukraine. One US-Chinese ‘swallow’ does not a new summery geopolitical outlook make. [...]

Global outlook grim. Global economy, limping not sprinting. Geopolitics impacts everything: economics, investor mood and moves. Western supremacy is a thing of the past. Some good news in Poland. Global repercussions of the Israel-Hamas war are bad news for Ukraine. Ultra-luxury market goes on rising. The double-edged sword of generative AI. [...]

The unsinkable US consumer is keeping its economy afloat. For rich economies, oil price inflation should be a manageable headwind. Long green - short brown or not, that is the question. Developing new technologies, including AI, is thirsty work. A Taskforce on Climate-related Financial Disclosure (TCFD) is on the way. Much in this "unhinged world” hinges on the outcome of [...]

Interest rates and inflation look set to be higher for longer, ditto for public debt levels. China’s flailing economy and the global economic and geopolitical fallout. Expansion of BRICS bloc membership changes nothing and everything. Beware 'risk blindness’, faltering climate policies and bubbling AI [...]

A resilient global economy but not to the same extent everywhere. Beware of ‘junk’ crawling out from under the low interest rate woodwork - almost everywhere. Not everyone feels threatened by AI but enough do to make it matter. Extreme heat events will impact everything. The worsening climate crisis engenders climate fatigue, powering political polarisation. Putin will stop at [...]

Global recession is almost a given, but there is mixed-messaging as to its severity. Security concerns and suspicion are pervasive - policymakers decide, business must adapt. How much has the Wagner attempted coup weakened Putin? Conserving natural capital is not an option, it's a necessity for economic growth. The same is true for the deployment of generative AI and [...]

Global economic outlook is fragile, characterised by deceleration, rising debt and bad demographics. Tech has some of the answers, but not without policy challenges. Similar distributional issues beset climate policy. The urgent need for AI and social media to come under regulatory scrutiny. All important détente is not in sight [...]

The economic outlook is murky - creating confusion. Inflation is lower but hasn’t gone away - impacting sentiments. Fragmentation is looking likely - causing nervousness. China-US relations - today’s defining issue. US default, will it won’t it? Political fallout from green agenda turbulence. Are demographic’s enough to make it India’s century? Civil conflicts on the rise globally. So is [...]

The slow-rolling macro crisis. Central banks’ conundrum with rising interest rates that hurt. IPCC latest report: we’ve been warned. Xi’s vassal, Vladimir and his long-lasting war. US-China - decoupling is no longer unimaginable. What AI can do for productivity [...]

The global economy is doing better (for the moment), but inflation remains sticky. The ever-lasting war that Putin cannot win but won’t give up, risks major escalation if China gets involved. A world of three non-cooperative blocs is becoming the geopolitical reality. The market vagaries of fighting climate change. Tech innovation moving faster than we can cope with. In [...]

Can the global economy's current short-term cheerfulness last? China’s re-opening matters globally, so does its ageing. Why going green is good not only for the environment but also for society and the economy too. National security trumps almost everything and determines ‘investibility’. There are two sides to the Chat GDP AI story. But, in the context of green tech, AI [...]

2023 will see: concatenation of risks and disruptions and a rising risk of stagflation. Persistent investor uncertainty. China’s growth story in disarray. The tech finance model in shreds - capital has lost patience. The state’s role on the rise. Nature becoming business and investor relevant. Plus other rays of hope: populism reaching its zenith? [...]

The recessionary global economy, inflation receding but persistent, from QE to QD, a positive turning point? US midterm elections: another turning point? Climate justice more pressing than ever, US and EU: more than a marital tiff, is this the "Golden Age of technology fraud"? Real estate's prices dropping [...]

Economic pessimism persists. Inflation looking increasingly entrenched. Policy makers’ conundrum: how to respond to the cost of living crisis? Lack of liquidity could spell market instability. Putin’s hybrid warfare means nothing is off-limits. Recent US decisions vis-à-vis China look like tech warfare. Advances in green energy tech are exceeding expectations. Rising interest rates reduce investors' appetite for distant pay-offs. [...]

Lower global growth, higher interest rates and borrowing costs, Putin's failing war efforts raise the stakes, far-right ascendency in Europe, markets disciplining the UK, natural capital is now a big deal, one reason for optimism: the Green Revolution, a take-away from the MB Summit of Minds in Chamonix [...]

Taming the inflation beast. Lagging productivity. China's deceleration. Water crisis and economics. Putin's war & energy. EU energy crunch 'catastrophic' or not so 'catastrophic'? The pandemic changes that are here to stay. The politicisation of ESG is gaining momentum. 

Gloomy sums up the global economic outlook. Deepening describes the ongoing global energy crisis. Except for a few, difficult is what a strong $ is going to make life for the rest. Still rising is the direction of far-right populism. Does survivable describe the pain inflicted on Europe by Putin’s weaponisation of energy? Increasingly plausible is how a Chinese [...]

Uncertainty is the certain fallout from a mix of multiple global crises. The era of low interest rates is over, but recessionary risks are outrunning inflationary ones. The war in Ukraine and the Chinese property crisis should stay at the forefront of our minds - whatever the headlines are saying. With democracy diminished, can the US remain a financial ‘safe [...]

The Global Economy is facing "a confluence of calamities". Inflation anxiety is being displaced by the spectre of recession. There is no end in view for the war in Ukraine. Meanwhile, it is distracting vital attention from the ever worsening climate crisis. The efficiency premium of autocracies now looks dubious. China is facing its own spectre of zero growth. Culture wars claim their latest victim - ESG. [...]

The longer the conflict in Ukraine lasts, the more dire will be the global consequences - economic, geopolitical and societal. Inflation is soaring and set to persist. Russia’s war is provoking a major global food crisis that is impacting disproportionately hard the world's poorest. Lockdowns in China are creating further inflationary pressures with [...]

A new world ‘disorder’ is emerging, in which Western hegemony is over, dollar dominance is under major pressure and nuclear proliferation will hasten. The longer the war, the higher the risk of recession and increased ’slowbalization’. Resilience and shortened supply chains have become priorities. Accelerated climate disruption is perhaps the highest priority of all. Activism is increasingly innovative - and [...]

The war in Ukraine has heightened the tensions in the global economy: lower growth and higher inflation are now a given. Ideas that the possibility of a swift diplomatic or domestic solution to the conflict exists are nothing but wishful thinking. The early phase of Putin’s assault on Ukraine has not gone to plan and as a result it [...]

With half the world infected, Omicron now looks to be in retreat. Growth is slowing down, while uncertainty and its contingent risks persist. The Fed’s approach to inflation is now certain, but is wage inflation here to stay? The pandemic has put paid to convergence. Green finance looks increasingly like a bubble waiting to do what bubbles do. What [...]

In 2022 a mix of Omicron and inflation will slow global growth. US global dominance continues to come under pressure, while at home a civil conflict scenario is becoming more likely. Stay-at-home working is here to stay. The scarcity of good jobs will be high up on policy makers' priority lists. NFTs were 2021’s speed-of-change poster boy. All things crypto [...]

The advent of the omicron variant means renewed uncertainty in terms of the economic outlook. Emerging countries still risk being the hardest hit. Global inflation will probably be kept at bay. But current market buoyancy looks increasingly fragile - beware of dislocations. The global economy can not be unscathed by inflation threats in US and slowing growth in China. [...]

The post pandemic recovery is both slower and more asymmetric than anticipated. There are more structural reasons for the ‘shortage economy’ than originally thought. Without major investment in renewables the global energy market will be unbalanced. Transient inflation looks here to stay - employees are not. The great re-evaluation persists, with an altered mindset in relation to work. Effectively [...]

With rising inflation looking more recalcitrant than expected, central banks will be more hawkish than dovish. With shortening supply chains and rising protectionism, localisation is gaining ground on globalisation. That said, the rest of the world still stands to be impacted by any hit to China’s growth inflicted by the Evergrande debacle. The Eurozone is vaccinating its way back [...]

Delta driven deceleration is a reality, but so too is long-awaited increased productivity. Whatever we do, the climate crisis and contingent extreme weather events are not going away, but despair and obliviousness are not an option. Bright ideas and radical policy are what’s needed. China is deploying the latter to tackle inequality. A post-Afghanistan, weaker US will result in a [...]

Beset by variants and surging infection rates the global recovery hangs in the balance. Public debt is on the rise and how to solve it is up in air. The acceleration of global warming is taking even the scientists by surprise. Those doing business with or in China today must expect the unexpected. The nature of future consumption may be [...]

GDP growth should be viewed in context. Central banks will do what’s needed to curb inflation. Likewise governments in terms of corporate (and other) taxation required to acquiesce domestic rumblings. Jubilant stock markets are not a reliable sign of buoyant economies. Climate change is getting hotter and hitting harder. The armoury of cyber warriors is evermore complex, efficient and [...]

The precipitous global recovery is bringing with it a myriad of consequences, good for some, not so good for others: mind spinning data; run-away demand with which supply is struggling to keep up; inflation overshoot already causing food insecurity. Energy transition has gone from optional, through desirable to obligatory. Personal freedom risks falling victim to a potent mix of [...]

An under-anticipated, synchronised but unevenly distributed global recovery is in the offing. Digitalisation may mean the ‘roaring’ goes on into the late 20s but the dangers of a divergent recovery and the debt-trap are not going away. In wealthy nations the rich will be solicited for a ‘recovery contribution’. In poor nations the pain of slow recovery will have [...]

US stimulus packages and vaccines vanquishing the variants are good for global GDP prospects 2021-22. But this growth could come with collateral damage for EMs. World population growth has taken an unexpected hit from the pandemic. Growth in climate migration will increasingly test democratic policy makers. Growing rivalry between China and the West will have multifaceted fallout: economic, societal [...]