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Monthly Barometer

2022-12-01T19:00:43+01:001 December 2022|

The recessionary global economy, inflation receding but persistent, from QE to QD, a positive turning point? US midterm elections: another turning point? Climate justice more pressing than ever, US and EU: more than a marital tiff, is this the "Golden Age of technology fraud"? Real estate's prices dropping [...]

Monthly Barometer

2022-11-01T12:49:06+01:001 November 2022|

Economic pessimism persists. Inflation looking increasingly entrenched. Policy makers’ conundrum: how to respond to the cost of living crisis? Lack of liquidity could spell market instability. Putin’s hybrid warfare means nothing is off-limits. Recent US decisions vis-à-vis China look like tech warfare. Advances in green energy tech are exceeding expectations. Rising interest rates reduce investors' appetite for distant pay-offs. [...]

Monthly Barometer

2022-10-03T15:10:28+02:001 October 2022|

Lower global growth, higher interest rates and borrowing costs, Putin's failing war efforts raise the stakes, far-right ascendency in Europe, markets disciplining the UK, natural capital is now a big deal, one reason for optimism: the Green Revolution, a take-away from the MB Summit of Minds in Chamonix [...]

Monthly Barometer

2022-09-01T10:03:12+02:001 September 2022|

Taming the inflation beast. Lagging productivity. China's deceleration. Water crisis and economics. Putin's war & energy. EU energy crunch 'catastrophic' or not so 'catastrophic'? The pandemic changes that are here to stay. The politicisation of ESG is gaining momentum. 

Monthly Barometer

2022-08-01T11:23:32+02:001 August 2022|

Gloomy sums up the global economic outlook. Deepening describes the ongoing global energy crisis. Except for a few, difficult is what a strong $ is going to make life for the rest. Still rising is the direction of far-right populism. Does survivable describe the pain inflicted on Europe by Putin’s weaponisation of energy? Increasingly plausible is how a Chinese [...]

Monthly Barometer

2022-07-01T14:42:51+02:001 July 2022|

Uncertainty is the certain fallout from a mix of multiple global crises. The era of low interest rates is over, but recessionary risks are outrunning inflationary ones. The war in Ukraine and the Chinese property crisis should stay at the forefront of our minds - whatever the headlines are saying. With democracy diminished, can the US remain a financial ‘safe [...]

Monthly Barometer

2022-07-01T01:11:28+02:001 June 2022|

The Global Economy is facing "a confluence of calamities". Inflation anxiety is being displaced by the spectre of recession. There is no end in view for the war in Ukraine. Meanwhile, it is distracting vital attention from the ever worsening climate crisis. The efficiency premium of autocracies now looks dubious. China is facing its own spectre of zero growth. Culture wars claim their latest victim - ESG. [...]

Monthly Barometer

2022-06-01T09:56:11+02:001 May 2022|

The longer the conflict in Ukraine lasts, the more dire will be the global consequences - economic, geopolitical and societal. Inflation is soaring and set to persist. Russia’s war is provoking a major global food crisis that is impacting disproportionately hard the world's poorest. Lockdowns in China are creating further inflationary pressures with [...]

Monthly Barometer

2022-04-01T15:33:12+02:001 April 2022|

A new world ‘disorder’ is emerging, in which Western hegemony is over, dollar dominance is under major pressure and nuclear proliferation will hasten. The longer the war, the higher the risk of recession and increased ’slowbalization’. Resilience and shortened supply chains have become priorities. Accelerated climate disruption is perhaps the highest priority of all. Activism is increasingly innovative - and [...]

Monthly Barometer

2022-03-01T10:27:21+01:001 March 2022|

The war in Ukraine has heightened the tensions in the global economy: lower growth and higher inflation are now a given. Ideas that the possibility of a swift diplomatic or domestic solution to the conflict exists are nothing but wishful thinking. The early phase of Putin’s assault on Ukraine has not gone to plan and as a result it [...]

Monthly Barometer

2022-02-01T11:28:45+01:001 February 2022|

With half the world infected, Omicron now looks to be in retreat. Growth is slowing down, while uncertainty and its contingent risks persist. The Fed’s approach to inflation is now certain, but is wage inflation here to stay? The pandemic has put paid to convergence. Green finance looks increasingly like a bubble waiting to do what bubbles do. What [...]

Monthly Barometer

2022-01-27T21:57:23+01:001 January 2022|

In 2022 a mix of Omicron and inflation will slow global growth. US global dominance continues to come under pressure, while at home a civil conflict scenario is becoming more likely. Stay-at-home working is here to stay. The scarcity of good jobs will be high up on policy makers' priority lists. NFTs were 2021’s speed-of-change poster boy. All things crypto [...]

Monthly Barometer

2021-12-08T19:47:58+01:001 December 2021|

The advent of the omicron variant means renewed uncertainty in terms of the economic outlook. Emerging countries still risk being the hardest hit. Global inflation will probably be kept at bay. But current market buoyancy looks increasingly fragile - beware of dislocations. The global economy can not be unscathed by inflation threats in US and slowing growth in China. [...]

Monthly Barometer

2021-11-15T09:41:11+01:001 November 2021|

The post pandemic recovery is both slower and more asymmetric than anticipated. There are more structural reasons for the ‘shortage economy’ than originally thought. Without major investment in renewables the global energy market will be unbalanced. Transient inflation looks here to stay - employees are not. The great re-evaluation persists, with an altered mindset in relation to work. Effectively [...]

Monthly Barometer

2021-11-15T09:41:23+01:001 October 2021|

With rising inflation looking more recalcitrant than expected, central banks will be more hawkish than dovish. With shortening supply chains and rising protectionism, localisation is gaining ground on globalisation. That said, the rest of the world still stands to be impacted by any hit to China’s growth inflicted by the Evergrande debacle. The Eurozone is vaccinating its way back [...]

Monthly Barometer

2021-11-15T09:41:32+01:001 September 2021|

Delta driven deceleration is a reality, but so too is long-awaited increased productivity. Whatever we do, the climate crisis and contingent extreme weather events are not going away, but despair and obliviousness are not an option. Bright ideas and radical policy are what’s needed. China is deploying the latter to tackle inequality. A post-Afghanistan, weaker US will result in a [...]

Monthly Barometer

2021-11-15T09:41:44+01:001 August 2021|

Beset by variants and surging infection rates the global recovery hangs in the balance. Public debt is on the rise and how to solve it is up in air. The acceleration of global warming is taking even the scientists by surprise. Those doing business with or in China today must expect the unexpected. The nature of future consumption may be [...]

Monthly Barometer

2021-11-15T09:41:55+01:001 July 2021|

GDP growth should be viewed in context. Central banks will do what’s needed to curb inflation. Likewise governments in terms of corporate (and other) taxation required to acquiesce domestic rumblings. Jubilant stock markets are not a reliable sign of buoyant economies. Climate change is getting hotter and hitting harder. The armoury of cyber warriors is evermore complex, efficient and [...]

Monthly Barometer

2021-11-15T09:42:16+01:001 June 2021|

The precipitous global recovery is bringing with it a myriad of consequences, good for some, not so good for others: mind spinning data; run-away demand with which supply is struggling to keep up; inflation overshoot already causing food insecurity. Energy transition has gone from optional, through desirable to obligatory. Personal freedom risks falling victim to a potent mix of [...]

Monthly Barometer

2021-11-15T09:42:24+01:001 May 2021|

An under-anticipated, synchronised but unevenly distributed global recovery is in the offing. Digitalisation may mean the ‘roaring’ goes on into the late 20s but the dangers of a divergent recovery and the debt-trap are not going away. In wealthy nations the rich will be solicited for a ‘recovery contribution’. In poor nations the pain of slow recovery will have [...]

Monthly Barometer

2021-11-15T09:42:32+01:001 April 2021|

US stimulus packages and vaccines vanquishing the variants are good for global GDP prospects 2021-22. But this growth could come with collateral damage for EMs. World population growth has taken an unexpected hit from the pandemic. Growth in climate migration will increasingly test democratic policy makers. Growing rivalry between China and the West will have multifaceted fallout: economic, societal [...]

Monthly Barometer

2021-04-15T11:52:26+02:001 March 2021|

Some inflation in the near future is a possibility but the deeper trends are disinflationary. When will it happen and what will it look like? [...]

Monthly Barometer

2021-04-15T11:53:08+02:001 February 2021|

Virus variants are stealing a march on vaccination efforts. Linear thinking will always fail to pick up the financial (and other) impact of macro events. [...]

Monthly Barometer

2021-04-15T11:53:52+02:001 January 2021|

Greater divergence – social, economic, (geo)political, and generational – will characterise our world in 2021. Technology deployed to sustainable ends and as an economic stimulant [...]

Monthly Barometer

2021-04-15T11:54:02+02:001 December 2020|

Effective vaccines are just around the corner, not so a widespread rapid economic recovery – its K shape means that for many sectors the return [...]

Monthly Barometer

2021-04-15T11:54:49+02:001 November 2020|

China has ‘controlled’ Covid-19 and is beginning to reap the economic benefits. In the rich world, up to now, policy has staved off economic disaster [...]

Monthly Barometer

2021-02-21T15:29:10+01:001 October 2020|

In the rich world, autumn COVID seems a little less deadly, but for all that no less devastating for the world’s poor. In terms of the economic recovery, K is either for kickstart or kick-down-and-out, depending on the industry. Rising geopolitical tensions and rivalry are filling the void left by a dissolving global order.

Monthly Barometer

2021-04-15T11:56:09+02:001 September 2020|

COVID-19 will be with us well into until 2021. Austerity has been replaced by unprecedented government spending, some of which, combined with private investment, could [...]

Monthly Barometer

2021-02-19T12:15:13+01:001 August 2020|

Even as the pandemic continues to grow its longer term economic and societal impacts are starting to emerge. Business’ environmental costs must be on future balance sheets. With a vital new deal Europe’s position gains in credibility amidst deteriorating US-China relations.

Monthly Barometer

2021-04-15T12:52:12+02:001 July 2020|

Economists disagree over the shape and timing of a recovery. Re-opening is far from a given and attitudes towards meat, oil and the dollar may [...]

Monthly Barometer

2021-04-15T12:52:23+02:001 June 2020|

Rising unemployment, rumbling US-China tensions, social contract under pressure. Women leaders and greater EU integration might have some answers. Wide-ranging fiscal and monetary policy measures [...]

Monthly Barometer

2021-02-19T12:15:38+01:0031 May 2020|

Wide-ranging fiscal and monetary policy measures have succeeded in averting a global financial meltdown. To do so, by the end of this year, OECD countries [...]

Monthly Barometer

2021-04-15T12:55:33+02:001 April 2020|

Seasonal COVID-19, sub-zero oil prices and autocratic ‘strong men’ flexing their muscles all add up to a very uncertain investment environment: Is market consensus under-estimating the impact? We think so.

Monthly Barometer

2021-04-15T12:55:49+02:001 March 2020|

Covid-19 is inflicting shock of an unprecedented nature on the global economy while exacerbating many pre-existing societal failings and inequalities. Governments have no choice but [...]

Monthly Barometer

2021-04-15T12:56:01+02:001 February 2020|

To give you a sense of which global issues will shape the months to come, here are the buzzwords that appeared most frequently in the [...]

Monthly Barometer

2021-02-19T12:17:50+01:001 January 2020|

To give you a sense of which global issues will shape the months to come, here are the buzzwords that appeared most frequently in the Monthly Barometer and Weekly Selections of 2019 (in no particular order) ...

Monthly Barometer

2021-02-19T12:17:38+01:0031 December 2019|

To give you a sense of which global issues will shape the months to come, here are the buzzwords that appeared most frequently in the Monthly Barometer and Weekly Selections of 2019 (in no particular order) ...

Monthly Barometer

2021-02-19T12:17:32+01:002 December 2019|

Is the recent (slight) improvement in the global economy real and for keeps? Buoyant financial markets and many pundits think so, confident that (1) the [...]

Monthly Barometer

2021-02-19T12:17:24+01:0031 October 2019|

The global economy is now in the midst of a “synchronized slowdown” (IMF), or worse: a “synchronized stagnation”. Those who believe that the manufacturing contraction [...]

Monthly Barometer

2021-02-21T15:30:44+01:006 September 2019|

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Monthly Barometer

2021-02-19T12:17:17+01:001 August 2019|

  The trade war is like a huge exogenous shock inflicted on the economy – the equivalent of a ‘surprise’ tax hike on consumers that [...]

Monthly Barometer

2021-04-15T12:57:54+02:0031 July 2019|

An increasingly precarious global economy makes recession look more and more likely. Downward pressure on interests rates suggest the probable Japanification of many rich economies. Although response to the intense climate crisis equates to investment opportunity the market continues to underprice its risk. High levels of societal concern over climate change and AI-provoked job losses will make government intervention inevitable.

Monthly Barometer

2021-04-15T12:58:24+02:0031 July 2019|

L’économie mondiale se trouve dans une situation de plus en plus précaire: en période de ralentissement majeur, avec un risque de récession qui augmente. En [...]

Monthly Barometer

2021-04-15T12:58:30+02:0030 June 2019|

Il est de plus en plus évident que le commerce et la géopolitique jouent un rôle clé dans la croissance économique mondiale, en particulier dans [...]

Monthly Barometer

2021-04-15T12:58:39+02:001 June 2019|

It is increasingly evident that trade and geopolitics are throwing a major spanner in the works of global economic growth, affecting in particular manufacturing and [...]

Monthly Barometer

2021-04-15T12:58:42+02:0031 May 2019|

La guerre commerciale entre les États-Unis et la Chine est le grand sujet économique du moment et le plus grand risque pour les perspectives de [...]

Monthly Barometer

2021-04-15T12:58:52+02:001 May 2019|

The trade war between the US and China is the current big economic story and the greatest risk to the global economic outlook. It’s hurting [...]

Monthly Barometer

2021-04-15T13:01:29+02:0030 April 2019|

Récession ou pas ? C’est la grande question de l’agenda économique du mois d’avril. Y-a-t-il eu trop de morosité ? La croissance mondiale semble se raffermir, [...]

Monthly Barometer

2021-02-19T12:18:56+01:0030 April 2019|

Recession or not a recession? That is April’s big economic question. Has there been too much gloom? Global growth seems to be firming up, the [...]

Monthly Barometer

2021-02-19T12:19:03+01:0029 March 2019|

What a difference a month makes! Although growth continues to slow (gently) in Asia, Europe and the US, the global economy is in no worse [...]

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