Monthly Barometer

2021-06-01T10:42:56+02:001 June 2021|

The precipitous global recovery is bringing with it a myriad of consequences, good for some, not so good for others: mind spinning data; run-away [...]

Monthly Barometer

2021-06-01T10:23:34+02:001 May 2021|

An under-anticipated, synchronised but unevenly distributed global recovery is in the offing. Digitalisation may mean the ‘roaring’ goes on into the late 20s but [...]

Monthly Barometer

2021-04-15T11:52:24+02:001 April 2021|

US stimulus packages and vaccines vanquishing the variants are good for global GDP prospects 2021-22. But this growth could come with collateral damage for [...]

Monthly Barometer

2021-04-15T11:52:26+02:001 March 2021|

Some inflation in the near future is a possibility but the deeper trends are disinflationary. When will it happen and what will it look like? [...]

Monthly Barometer

2021-04-15T11:53:08+02:001 February 2021|

Virus variants are stealing a march on vaccination efforts. Linear thinking will always fail to pick up the financial (and other) impact of macro events. [...]

Monthly Barometer

2021-04-15T11:53:52+02:001 January 2021|

Greater divergence - social, economic, (geo)political, and generational - will characterise our world in 2021. Technology deployed to sustainable ends and as an economic stimulant [...]

Monthly Barometer

2021-04-15T11:54:02+02:001 December 2020|

Effective vaccines are just around the corner, not so a widespread rapid economic recovery - its K shape means that for many sectors the return [...]

Monthly Barometer

2021-04-15T11:54:49+02:001 November 2020|

China has ‘controlled’ Covid-19 and is beginning to reap the economic benefits. In the rich world, up to now, policy has staved off economic disaster [...]

Monthly Barometer

2021-02-21T15:29:10+01:001 October 2020|

In the rich world, autumn COVID seems a little less deadly, but for all that no less devastating for the world’s poor. In terms of the economic recovery, K is either for kickstart or kick-down-and-out, depending on the industry. Rising geopolitical tensions and rivalry are filling the void left by a dissolving global order.

Monthly Barometer

2021-04-15T11:56:09+02:001 September 2020|

COVID-19 will be with us well into until 2021. Austerity has been replaced by unprecedented government spending, some of which, combined with private investment, could [...]

Monthly Barometer

2021-02-19T12:15:13+01:001 August 2020|

Even as the pandemic continues to grow its longer term economic and societal impacts are starting to emerge. Business’ environmental costs must be on future balance sheets. With a vital new deal Europe’s position gains in credibility amidst deteriorating US-China relations.

Monthly Barometer

2021-04-15T12:52:12+02:001 July 2020|

Economists disagree over the shape and timing of a recovery. Re-opening is far from a given and attitudes towards meat, oil and the dollar may [...]

Monthly Barometer

2021-04-15T12:52:23+02:001 June 2020|

Rising unemployment, rumbling US-China tensions, social contract under pressure. Women leaders and greater EU integration might have some answers. Wide-ranging fiscal and monetary policy measures [...]

Monthly Barometer

2021-02-19T12:15:38+01:0031 May 2020|

Wide-ranging fiscal and monetary policy measures have succeeded in averting a global financial meltdown. To do so, by the end of this year, OECD countries [...]

Monthly Barometer

2021-04-15T12:55:33+02:001 April 2020|

Seasonal COVID-19, sub-zero oil prices and autocratic ‘strong men’ flexing their muscles all add up to a very uncertain investment environment: Is market consensus under-estimating the impact? We think so.

Monthly Barometer

2021-04-15T12:55:49+02:001 March 2020|

Covid-19 is inflicting shock of an unprecedented nature on the global economy while exacerbating many pre-existing societal failings and inequalities. Governments have no choice but [...]

Monthly Barometer

2021-04-15T12:56:01+02:001 February 2020|

To give you a sense of which global issues will shape the months to come, here are the buzzwords that appeared most frequently in the [...]

Monthly Barometer

2021-02-19T12:17:50+01:001 January 2020|

To give you a sense of which global issues will shape the months to come, here are the buzzwords that appeared most frequently in the Monthly Barometer and Weekly Selections of 2019 (in no particular order) ...

Monthly Barometer

2021-02-19T12:17:38+01:0031 December 2019|

To give you a sense of which global issues will shape the months to come, here are the buzzwords that appeared most frequently in the Monthly Barometer and Weekly Selections of 2019 (in no particular order) ...

Monthly Barometer

2021-02-19T12:17:32+01:002 December 2019|

Is the recent (slight) improvement in the global economy real and for keeps? Buoyant financial markets and many pundits think so, confident that (1) the [...]

Monthly Barometer

2021-02-19T12:17:24+01:0031 October 2019|

The global economy is now in the midst of a “synchronized slowdown” (IMF), or worse: a “synchronized stagnation”. Those who believe that the manufacturing contraction [...]

Monthly Barometer

2021-02-21T15:30:44+01:006 September 2019|

Increasingly, CEOs, investors, and policy-makers confess they are ‘flying blind’ – no one really knows what’s coming next. This might explain why despite 0 [...]

Monthly Barometer

2021-02-19T12:17:17+01:001 August 2019|

  The trade war is like a huge exogenous shock inflicted on the economy - the equivalent of a ‘surprise’ tax hike on consumers that [...]

Monthly Barometer

2021-04-15T12:57:54+02:0031 July 2019|

An increasingly precarious global economy makes recession look more and more likely. Downward pressure on interests rates suggest the probable Japanification of many rich economies. Although response to the intense climate crisis equates to investment opportunity the market continues to underprice its risk. High levels of societal concern over climate change and AI-provoked job losses will make government intervention inevitable.

Monthly Barometer

2021-04-15T12:58:24+02:0031 July 2019|

L'économie mondiale se trouve dans une situation de plus en plus précaire: en période de ralentissement majeur, avec un risque de récession qui augmente. En [...]

Monthly Barometer

2021-04-15T12:58:30+02:0030 June 2019|

Il est de plus en plus évident que le commerce et la géopolitique jouent un rôle clé dans la croissance économique mondiale, en particulier dans [...]

Monthly Barometer

2021-04-15T12:58:39+02:001 June 2019|

It is increasingly evident that trade and geopolitics are throwing a major spanner in the works of global economic growth, affecting in particular manufacturing and [...]

Monthly Barometer

2021-04-15T12:58:42+02:0031 May 2019|

La guerre commerciale entre les États-Unis et la Chine est le grand sujet économique du moment et le plus grand risque pour les perspectives de [...]

Monthly Barometer

2021-04-15T12:58:52+02:001 May 2019|

The trade war between the US and China is the current big economic story and the greatest risk to the global economic outlook. It’s hurting [...]

Monthly Barometer

2021-04-15T13:01:29+02:0030 April 2019|

Récession ou pas ? C’est la grande question de l’agenda économique du mois d’avril. Y-a-t-il eu trop de morosité ? La croissance mondiale semble se raffermir, [...]

Monthly Barometer

2021-02-19T12:18:56+01:0030 April 2019|

Recession or not a recession? That is April’s big economic question. Has there been too much gloom? Global growth seems to be firming up, the [...]

Monthly Barometer

2021-02-19T12:19:03+01:0029 March 2019|

What a difference a month makes! Although growth continues to slow (gently) in Asia, Europe and the US, the global economy is in no worse [...]

Monthly Barometer

2021-02-19T12:19:55+01:0028 February 2019|

The global economy continues to head downwards while the financial markets are enjoying a spectacular recovery. This disconnect is best explained by the situation in [...]

Monthly Barometer

2021-02-19T12:21:11+01:0031 January 2019|

Global economic data continues to weaken, with contractionary forces taking hold around the world. However, contraction doesn’t mean recession: growth is slowing but expansion isn’t [...]

Monthly Barometer

2021-02-19T12:21:19+01:0031 December 2018|

The global economy’s upbeat tempo as 2018 opened has slowed to a downbeat tone as the year draws to a close. Global growth is losing [...]

Monthly Barometer

2021-02-19T12:21:39+01:0030 November 2018|

Global economic data continues to soften. The next few months will be characterised by a synchronised slowdown - the exact opposite of the synchronised upswing [...]

Monthly Barometer

2021-02-19T12:21:33+01:0031 October 2018|

The global economic outlook is deteriorating, while a combination of (1) global debt overhang and (2) rising tensions (not only trade) between the US and [...]

Monthly Barometer

2021-02-19T12:21:28+01:0030 September 2018|

This month marked the 10th anniversary of the Great financial crisis. What is its legacy? (1) The whole world is over-indebted, with total global debt (public, [...]

Monthly Barometer

2021-02-19T12:21:52+01:0031 August 2018|

The euphoria over a synchronized global upswing has expired. Global growth remains solid, but it is imbalanced and fragile: emerging markets (EM),Europe and Japan are [...]

Monthly Barometer

2021-02-19T12:21:44+01:0031 July 2018|

Trade tensions in general and the escalating trade war between the US and China in particular are transforming economic tailwinds into headwinds, notably in the [...]

Monthly Barometer

2021-02-19T12:23:30+01:0030 June 2018|

Mounting concerns about trade are exacerbating the deceleration in global growth expectations. If it continues, the current tit-for-tat escalation could become reminiscent of the Smoot-Hawley [...]

Monthly Barometer

2021-04-15T13:01:55+02:0031 May 2018|

Global economic growth remains robust, but it is levelling off. Tighter monetary conditions and supply-side constraints mean that the peak in global economic activity is [...]

Monthly Barometer

2021-02-19T12:22:16+01:003 April 2018|

Global economic growth remains robust, but it is levelling off. In systemically important countries like Japan or regions like the Eurozone, 2018 won’t be as [...]

Monthly Barometer

2021-02-19T12:22:26+01:0031 March 2018|

For the first time in months, economic risks are on the downside. While most forecasts for global growth remain buoyant(at about 4% this year), there [...]

Monthly Barometer

2021-02-19T12:22:57+01:0028 February 2018|

With the global economy growing at its fastest rate since 2011, the global output is moving from being below potential to above potential. In other [...]

Monthly Barometer

2021-02-19T12:23:06+01:0031 January 2018|

2018 begins with a marked dissonance between improving economics and deteriorating politics – the greatest risk to the global economy. The current, almost perfectly synchronized,economic [...]

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