QUOTE OF THE WEEK
ARTICLE OF THE WEEK
Steven Levitsky and Lucan Way, The Path to American Authoritarianism
(Foreign Affairs, 11 February 2025)
A must-read to understand what’s coming. The two academics warn that Donald Trump’s “return to office has been met with striking indifference”, yet “democracy is in greater peril today than at any time in modern US history.” Democracy survived Trump’s first term only because he had no experience, plan, or team, but this time he will govern with loyalists who acquiesce to his authoritarian behavior. This doesn’t mean that the US will succumb to fascism or a single-party dictatorship, but rather to what the authors call “competitive authoritarianism”: “a system in which parties compete in elections but the incumbent’s abuse of power tilts the playing field against the opposition” thanks to the politicization and weaponization of government bureaucracy (metered paywall that may require prior registration, 7-9 min).
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Marc Champion, Ukraine Is Just a Pawn in a Russian Reset
(Bloomberg, 20 January 2025)
The way to understand Trump’s approach to ending Russia’s war in Ukraine is by turning that proposition on its head. What the US President is truly negotiating is a reset with Russia, making Ukraine just the most valuable card in his hand. Seen in this light, what he is trying to solve (get back) in the negotiations is the $300 bn the US lost in Russian business due to the war. Trump wants the big US companies back in Russia and is ready to sacrifice Ukraine and Zelensky (who he now grotesquely calls a “dictator”) on the altar of his Russian reset. A fair deal for Ukraine remains possible, but so far, the US President’s approach is just shameful (gifted article, 6-8 min).
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Brad Setser, Xi Is Making the World Pay for China’s Mistakes
(The New York Times, 18 February 2025)
Why the world economy is in for a rough ride: “Mr. Xi has a one-way vision of trade. Mr. Trump often sounds as if he doesn’t believe in any trade. Between the two of them, the global economy is in for a rough ride.” Setser explains in simple and understandable terms why Xi Jinping’s strategic and calibrated industrial and economic policies are fundamentally distorting and harming global trade. He is, de facto, “making China’s trade partners and competitors pay for the government’s misplaced bet on real estate and its longer-term failure to strengthen the spending of Chinese households” (gifted article, 5-7 min).
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Christos Makridis, The role of personality traits in shaping economic returns amid technological change
(CEPR, 31 January 2025)
Rapid progress in AI will reshape labour markets and will challenge long-held beliefs about the skills and character traits that drive success. New findings suggest that (1) intellectual tenacity, which encompass analytical thinking, persistence, initiative, and innovation: all necessary to innovate in complex, non-routine tasks; (2) and social adjustment, with traits like emotion regulation, cooperation, and stress tolerance, vital for face-to-face interactions and empathy, will predict higher wages and better job performance (free access, reads in 6-8 min).
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Oliver Burkeman, How the news took over reality
(The Guardian, 3 May 2019)
This article from the brilliant Oliver Burkeman is 6 years old but spot on. How do we deal with the relentless over-abundant (often fear-inducing) news of today? Burkeman replies and explains in the mail (“The Imperfectionist”) he sent yesterday to his subscribers: “You should make sure your psychological centre of gravity is in your real and immediate world – the world of your family and friends and neighborhood, your work and your creative projects, as opposed to the world of presidencies and governments, social forces and global emergencies. This will make you happier” (free access, 7-9 min).
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