How to find hope in an age of resentment; how to identify the eight headwinds that threaten global growth; how to make the case for improved globalisation; how to make sense of what just happened in Syria; and how to pick 52 interesting things.
QUOTE OF THE WEEK
“If we stand up to the kakistocracy — rule by the worst — that’s emerging as we speak, we may eventually find our way back to a better world.” (Paul Krugman in the article of the week).
ARTICLE OF THE WEEK
Paul Krugman, My Last Column: Finding Hope in an Age of Resentment
(The New York Times, 9 December 2024)
In his latest column for the NYT, the celebrated economist reflects on what has changed over these past 25 years. What strikes him most is the extent to which the optimism that prevailed in the early 2000s has been replaced by anger and resentment. In his opinion, this is mainly due to the collapse of trust in elites. The public no longer has faith that the people running things know what they’re doing, or that we can assume that they’re being honest. In its own way, the financial crisis of 2008 also undermined any faith the public had that governments knew how to manage economies (gifted article, 5-7 min).
Click here to read the full article
Dambisa Moyo, The Eight Headwinds Threatening Global Growth in 2025
(Project Syndicate, 6 December 2024)
As geopolitical tensions spike and the global economy continues to fracture, several powerful forces and trends threaten to impede GDP growth. The useful checklist that identifies them. (1) No world order; (2) Populism and domestic politics; (3) AI and technological disruption; (4) demographic changes – could impede growth; (5) Rising disparities; (6) Resource scarcities and the energy transition; (7) Strained government budgets and fiscal pressures; (8) Accelerated deglobalization (metered paywall that may require prior registration, 9-10 min).
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Raghuram Rajan, The Gospel of Deglobalization
(Foreign Affairs, January-February 2024)
As the former IMF chief economist and governor of the Bank of India shows, deglobalization is well underway. He argues that the costs of giving up on globalization are immense and will be borne disproportionately by people who live outside the developed world, the young, and future generations. He also thinks that greater regionalization will impede the fight against climate change. His conclusion: “Faced with an existential threat, humanity will eventually realize it needs improved globalization, not less globalization—and the sooner, the better” (metered paywall that may require prior registration, 8-10 min).
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Hal Brands, Assad’s Fall Shows Russia, Iran and Hamas Made a Bad Bet
(Bloomberg, 9 December 2024)
The fall of Bashar-El-Assad is one of the unintended consequences of Hamas’s attack on Israel in October of last year, with Iran and Russia among the greatest losers. The end-result is a true revolution in Middle Eastern geopolitics. For the moment, it looks like the regional balance of forces is more favorable to the US, Israel and their allies than at any time in a generation; but this doesn’t mean the Middle East is entering “a bright new era of peace.” The collapse of Assad’s regime could cause a revival of the Islamic State, the emergence of a jihadist regime in Damascus, or a descent into chaos that affects the entire region (gifted article, 6-7 min).
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Tom Whitwell, 52 things I learned in 2024
(Medium, 1 December 2024)
Punchy crisp insights, always fun and relevant. They range from how Ozempic seems to be changing the secondhand clothes market to how South Korea fights tax evasion. 52 learnings in less than 10 min, unless you open the corresponding hyperlinks (metered paywall that requires prior registration – but fast and simple).
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