There is an economic storm brewing. New economic fault lines emerging. Whatever the outcome, the post-election US will be increasingly divided and dysfunctional. Abuse of wellness can be a source of sickness. How to get the best out of stress.

QUOTE OF THE WEEK

“How can you have a soft landing in a world that’s falling apart? I don’t think the US, or any economy can soft-land in the current environment. There will be shocks.” (Peter Praet, a former ECB chief economist, quoted in the second article)

ARTICLE OF THE WEEK

Daron Acemoglu, America Is Sleepwalking Into an Economic Storm
(The New York Times, 17 October 2024)
The recent winner of the Nobel prize in economics sees a “storm approaching”. “Barreling toward us are three epochal changes poised to reshape the US economy in coming years: an aging population, the rise of artificial intelligence and the rewiring of the global economy.” If handled correctly, these challenges could produce much higher productivity, wages and opportunities, but if they are mismanaged they’ll do the opposite. Acemoglu fears the US dysfunctional US political system will deliver the latter. What is true for the US is most likely also true for the rest of the world economies (gifted article, 7-8 min).
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World Economy Fault Lines Shift From Prices to Politics and Debt
(Bloomberg, 20 October 2024)
A quick take on the world economy as the IMF and the World Bank Group just met in Washington DC for their Annual Meeting. “Don’t expect any victory parties” sad the IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva. So far, the global economy has proved surprisingly resilient, but geopolitical risks are in the way. So is global over-indebtedness (gifted article, 5-6 min).
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Ian Bremmer, What happens after Nov. 5?
(GZero, 16 October 2024)
Sobering. The coming US election wil be decided by just tens of thousands of voters in a handful of swing states, but its result will affect eight billion people worldwide. Bremmer warns of possible unrest and his conclusion sounds about right: “None of this means the United States is headed for civil war. The risk of any political violence posing a serious threat to US stability remains very low. But we are likely to see a period of profound unrest the likes of which the country hasn’t experienced in decades.
The most divided and dysfunctional advanced industrial democracy will become more so.” (free access, 6-7 min).
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Jonathan Stea, The Multi-Trillion-Dollar Wellness Industry Is Making Us Sick
(Walrus, 21 October 2024)
Wellness is a wonderful thing, but like all great appealling and trendy ideas, it can be abused. This is an excerpt from “Mind the Science: Saving Your Mental Health from the Wellness Industry” by a clinical psychologist and professor of psychology. He’s particularly critical about alternative medicine which he claims, “has become a scrutiny-free wonderland for anything and everything”. Of particular concern is the unholy alliance between far-right conspiracists and wellness (metered paywall, 8-10 min).
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Allison Aubrey, Stress isn’t all bad. Here’s when it can help
(NPR, 21 October 2024)
The stress to which we give a negative connotation seems to be everywhere but our stress response can also be our body’s way of preparing to rise to a challenge. As such, our stress responses can be “optimized,” with research showing that we can be taught to “reappraise” stress (free article, 3-4 min).
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