Why the green transition risks being held hostage to geo-economic security. But why tariffs don’t make economic sense either. Why a ‘strategic vacuum’ hovering between two world orders makes halting war in the Middle East so difficult. Why the technology has made finding Mrs or Mr right harder than ever. Why grasping the science of life is no easy matter.
QUOTE OF THE WEEK
ARTICLE OF THE WEEK
Europe’s 2040 climate target: four critical risks and how to manage them
(Bruegel, 3 October 2024)
The renowned European think-tank just published a paper that sets out four risks that could derail progress towards the 2040 climate target: (1) geoeconomic instability, (2) technological progress, (3) exacerbated inequality and (4) policy credibility. It makes a key point about one of today’s greatest conundrums: “Reduced imports from China of these products (batteries, EVs, critical materials), because of competitiveness concerns or economic security, imply the risk of both slowing down the energy transition and increasing its cost”. Thus: “Economic de-risking may increase climate risk.” (free access; the executive summary reads in 1 min, the whole report in less than 30).
Click here to read the full article
Kimberly Clausing and Maurice Obstfeld, What populists don’t understand about tariffs (but economists do)
(Peterson Institute for International Economics, 1 October 2024)
The argument couldn’t be more succinct and compelling: the economic case for tariffs is non-existent. The reasons are quite simple: tariffs (1) are always very costly, (2) deliver negligeable or no benefits and (3) there are other policy tools more effective than tariffs (free access, reads in less than 10 min).
Click here to read the full article
Roger Cohen, Why the World’s Biggest Powers Can’t Stop a Middle East War
(The New York Times, 29 September 2024)
The Middle East is on the verge of a dangerous precipice, but nobody knows whether it will plunge into a regional war. It might, fuelled by the world’s increasing fragmentation, of which the Middle East is the primary case study. For many years, the US was the only country that could bring constructive pressure to bear on both Israel and Arab states, but not anymore. Its ability to influence Iran is marginal, at best, and its policy vis-à-vis Israel will not change, or only at the margins. Meanwhile, other powers are essentially onlookers as the bloodshed continues. The bottom line: the region is mired in a “strategic vacuum of an à la carte world order, suspended between the demise of Western domination and the faltering rise of alternatives to it (gifted article, reads in 6-8 min).
Click here to read the full article
Sarah Green Carmichael, What Really Changed the Marriage Market
(Bloomberg, 3 October 2024)
In what came as a bit of a surprise, a recent academic paper just found that the rise of dating apps has not made it any easier to find a soulmate. The reason is quite simple: our brains are unable to handle it the excess choice on offer. As the paper says, “people’s capacity to process and evaluate information hasn’t improved despite technological advancements.” The economists also found major shift in men’s marriage preferences, with negative implications for income inequality. Contrary to the past (trying to “marry up”), today’s preference for a similarly educated, similarly earning spouse is so strong that it accounts for about half of the increase in income inequality between 1980 and 2020 (in the US) (gifted article, reads in 5-7 min).
Click here to read the full article
David Krakauer and Chris Kempes, Problem-solving matter
(AEON, 17 September 2024)
Dense, rich and complex. Not an easy read, but incredibly rewarding! The two professionnals from the Santa Fe Institute investigate humanity’s attempts to respond to one of our most complex “problems”: life itself. They bring together disparate disciplines, including physics, computer science, astrobiology, synthetic biology, evolutionary science, neuroscience and philosophy (as the Santa Fe Institute does) to explain why life is starting to look a lot less like an outcome of chemistry and physics, and more like a computational process (which emerges from procedures of reason or logic). Sympathetic to the reader, they point out that “it can be difficult for outsiders to understand how these incommensurable ideas are connected to each other.” But keep reading, it will be time well spent (metered paywall, 15-20 min).
Click here to read the full article
