The history of world energy is entering a new era of renewables. Climate scientists now say temperature rising beyond well beyond 1.5 C is inevitable. Learning from history: Cold War II with China. How bad really are ultra-processed foods and why? The late Daniel Kahneman helps us understand how we think.
QUOTE OF THE WEEK
ARTICLE OF THE WEEK
Dave Jones, The world has passed a turning point in the history of energy
(Semafor, 8 May 2024)
A healthy break from the plethora of bad news about the climate with this short piece from an energy think tank. Last year, the world reached an essential milestone, with renewable sources accounting for 30% of global electricity for the first time. As the report asserts: “The rapid growth in solar and wind power has brought the world to a crucial pivot point — likely this year — where fossil fuel-powered generation will start to decline at a global level.” Five statements: (1) “The renewables future has arrived”; (2) Solar is growing faster than anyone thought possible; (3) Yet the best is still yet to come with solar; (4) 2023 was a down year for
wind; (5) The fossil fuel-power era is ending (but slowly) (metered paywall, 5-6 min).
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Damian Carrington, World’s top climate scientists expect global heating to blast past 1.5C target
(The Guardian, 8 May 2024)
A painful but necessary counterpoint to the article above. It paints such a bleak outlook that the only hope is that in the face of grim reality the fight against climate change will greatly intensify. A poll conducted amongst hundreds of the world’s leading climate scientists makes it plain why climate is the ‘mother’ of all risks. 80% of the respondents foresee at least 2.5C of global heating, while almost half anticipate at least 3C (5.4F), with only 6% confident that the internationally agreed 1.5C (2.7F) limit would be met. This leads many to envisage a “semi-dystopian” future, with famines, conflicts and mass migration, driven by heatwaves, wildfires, floods and storms of an intensity andand frequency far beyond those that have already
struck (free article, reads in 6-8 min).
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Niall Ferguson, How to Use and Misuse History in Cold War II With China
(Bloomberg, 5 May 2024)
Learning from history. The historian offers eight examples, ranging from the triumphs of populism to the failures of economics, that show how, in his opinion, analyzing past experience can improve our forecasting and decision-making. A highly personal (and sometimes self-serving) account with plenty to disagree with, but indisputably a rich, dense, and insightful account (gifted article, reads in about 10 min).
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Alice Callahan, How Bad Are Ultraprocessed Foods, Really?
(The New York Times, 8 May 2024)
Ultraprocessed foods (UPFs) are clearly linked to poor health (causing heart disease, Type 2 diabetes, obesity, gastrointestinal diseases, and depression, as well as earlier death), but scientists are only beginning to understand why. Many questions around the precise nature of ultraprocessed foods, and the evidence that they’re harmful remain. They are being answered by scientists and experts here. In short: “If you look at the ingredient list and you see things that you wouldn’t use in home cooking, then that’s probably an ultraprocessed food.” The research, based on observational studies, suggests that certain types of ultraprocessed foods, like sodas and processed meats are more harmful than others (gifted article, 5-7 min).
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Remembering Daniel Kahneman: 7 theories that can help you understand how you think
(Clearer Thinking, 9 May 2024)
Daniel Kahneman, a giant in the fields of psychology and behavioral economics, recently passed away. Throughout his career, he did a lot to improve our understanding of how our minds work. This short posting reflects on some of his key contributions. Read on to better understand how (1) anchoring, (2) prospect theory, (3) focusing illusion, (4) the peak-end rule, (5) planning fallacy, (6) availability heuristic, and (7) representativeness heuristic explain and affect our decisions (gifted article, reads in 6-7 min).
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