The time to invest in AI control and safety is now. Opinions remain confused on the global economic outlook and whether China can replace the US. A prominent VC now behind the curve. How to future proof our jobs against AI.
QUOTE OF THE WEEK
ARTICLE OF THE WEEK
Chief Economists Outlook, Centre for the New Economy and Society
(WEF, May 2023)
The aggregated view of several dozen chief economists from different industries on what the outlook is. It short: it emphasizes the continuing uncertainty for policymakers, businesses and households as persistent headwinds buffet the global economy – all this together with the underlying tremors caused by the incipient banking crisis. An interesting point: the remarkable dispersion of responses shows there is no consensus about what’s coming next, whether it’s the global recession (growth), inflation, financial stability and so on (free access – the executive summary reads in 3-4 min).
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Jessica Chen Weiss, Even China Isn’t Convinced It Can Replace the U.S.
(The New York Times, 4 May 2023)
A nuanced view of the strategic confrontation between the US and China. The Cornell academic argues that a lot of China’s ideological proclamations are in part motivated by insecurity, and that we should always be careful when assessing China based on cherry-picked phrases from party propaganda. It’s therefore hard to know with certainty what China’s long-term ambitions are, and far from clear that “it can, or even seeks to, replace the US as the world’s dominant power.” A quote from an influential Chinese scholar sums it up: “It is impossible for America to contain the rise of China, and it is equally impossible for China to quickly surpass America.”
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Zoe Kleinman & Chris Vallance, AI ‘godfather’ Geoffrey Hinton warns of dangers as he quits Google
(BBC News, 3 May 2023)
A much-commented story over the past few days. A man widely seen as the godfather of AI has quit his job at Google, warning about what he sees as the growing dangers from developments in AI. He joins the growing chorus of scientists and practitioners worried about generative AI because he now thinks that chatbots could soon overtake the level of information that a human brain holds: “Right now, what we’re seeing is things like GPT-4 eclipses a person in the amount of general knowledge it has, and it eclipses them by a long way. In terms of reasoning, it’s not as good, but it does already do simple reasoning” (free access – reads in 5-7 min).
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Elizabeth Lopatto, Andreessen Horowitz saw the future — but did the future leave it behind?
(The Verge, 3 May 2023)
A piece of what went wrong with the excesses of VC, as seen through the lens of Andreessen Horowitz’s firm, which was known for hyping its portfolio. But, as the author asserts, in the era of tech skepticism and rising interest rates, it is no longer ahead of the curve. A former partner of the firm called it “a media company that monetizes through VC.” The bottom line: there are a limited number of companies that can scale as massively as venture capital requires, and as investors competed for companies, firms relaxed their due diligence (metered paywall – reads in 7-9 min).
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Doris Clark and Thomas Chamorro-Premuzic, 5 Ways to Future-Proof Your Career in the Age of AI
(Harvard Business Review, 25 April 2023)
How can we prepare ourselves to stave off the displacement provoked by AI? Five strategies are offered to future-proof our career in the age of intelligent machines: (1) Avoid predictability (remember that AI does not generate new insights – it’s a mere prediction engine that guesses the most likely next word; (2) Hone the skills that machines strive to emulate; (3) Double down on “the real world”; (4) Develop your personal brand; (5) Develop recognized expertise in your field. Even if AI performs “first draft” functions, it must still be double-checked by a trusted and reliable source – someone who has the authority to vet AI’s responses (metered paywall – reads in 6-7 min).
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