The monetary policy implications of a fragmenting world. The need to embrace ‘not knowing’ what lies ahead. The need to decide what an economy revolutionised by ChatGPT will look like. The need to play to learn. The 6 things we need for long-lived cognitive health.
QUOTE OF THE WEEK
ARTICLE OF THE WEEK
Christine Lagarde, Central banks in a fragmenting world
(Speech at the Council on Foreign Relations, 17 April 2023)
A short speech that lays bare what the “new global map” is all about. The global economy is fragmenting into competing blocs led by the world’s two largest economies, with far-reaching implications across many domains of policymaking – notably for central banks. In short, they’ll be affected by two profound impacts: (1) more instability as global supply elasticity wanes; resulting into higher inflation, lower economic activity, and a fall in international trade; (2) more multipolarity as geopolitical tensions increase, leading to ramifications for payments and international currency reserves (free access – reads in about 10 min).
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Jerome Roos, We Don’t Know What Will Happen Next
(The New York Times, 18 April 2023)
Few would dispute that we live in age of upheaval, as we face a confluence of challenges unlike any other in recent history (like climate change, geopolitical turmoil and breakneck developments in AI). To truly grasp the complex nature of our current time, we therefore need to embrace its fundamental open-endedness and radical uncertainty – not knowing where we are and what lies ahead. We should also remember that any major crisis “is to be regarded as a new nexus of growth.” History is not a straight line tending either up toward gradual improvement or down toward an inevitable collapse, but rather phases of relative calm punctuated every so often by periods of great upheaval. “Progress and catastrophe, those binary opposites, are really joined at the hip.” (gifted article – reads in 7-9 min).
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David Rotman, ChatGPT is about to revolutionize the economy. We need to decide what that looks like
(MIT Review, 25 March 2023)
Generative AI models hold the promise of automating all sorts of tasks. Investors and businesses will most likely benefit, but the impact on workers and the economy is far less obvious. Based on research conducted by various academics at MIT, this longish piece delves into the details on what generative AI will do to productivity, inequality and the labour market. One great hope (based on a new paper): it might “upskill” people who are having trouble finding work. In the end, all will depend on policy. As the economist David Autor notes: “I don’t think we should take it as the technology is loose on the world and we must adapt to it. Because it’s in the process of being created, it can be used and developed in a variety of ways (metered paywall – reads in about 15 min).
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Susan Magsamen & Ivy Ross, To Supercharge Learning, Look to Play
(Nautilus, 4 April 2023)
Play is a key component of the arts and aesthetics in myriad ways, and in fact art and play are like two sides of the same coin, with play being a part of artistic expression, imagination, creativity, and curiosity. Though it often gets buried in adulthood, the urge to play exists in all of us, and has been a major part of how we’ve evolved as a species. Play is therefore a key ingredient for learning, so much so that “If you’re not having a good time, you’re really not learning” (metered paywall – reads in 8-10 min).
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Alexa Mikhail, The 6 things longevity expert Dr. Mark Hyman does each day to keep his brain sharp
(Fortune Well, 13 April 2023)
Nothing new here but an essential reminder nonetheless. Optimal brain health boils down to six simple things according to Hyman – a renowned longevity expert and author of the recent “Young Forever: The Secrets to Living Your Longest, Healthiest Life”: Eat (1) Healthy fats (omega-3 fatty acids which are the “building blocks” of the brain), (2) Proteins (associated with a reduced risk of cognitive decline later in life, (3) and colorful plant foods (strengthen the gut microbiome, which in turn helps reduce inflammation), (4) Avoid sugar and processed foods (cause brain fog and hurt memory), (5) Move daily (it improves brain function and can help reduce symptoms of anxiety and depression) and (6) Relax and calm the mind (metered paywall – reads in 4-5 min).
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