Even economists recognise that geopolitics prevails. The impact of life-embedded technology is both positive and negative, but the latter can be mitigated. A war with China is not inevitable, but is plausible and its global impact would be unprecedented. The ’thin at any cost’ culture is back, and at a huge cost in terms of teenage mental health. Attitudes and expectations must adapt to mitigate the climate crisis in the Alps.
QUOTE OF THE WEEK
ARTICLE OF THE WEEK
(Project Syndicate, 9 March 2023)
As the world abandons hyper-globalization, there is no certainty as to which system and narrative will prevail. The Harvard economist puts forward two new paradigms. (1) His own (“productivism”) that emphasizes the role of governments in addressing inequality, public health, and the clean-energy transition. It essentially reasserts domestic political priorities without being inimical to an open world economy. (2) A “hyper-realist” one that emphasizes the geopolitical rivalry between the US and China and applies a zero-sum logic to economic relations between major powers. It views economic interdependence not as a source of mutual gain but as a weapon that could be wielded to cripple one’s adversaries. As trade overlaps (1) and (2), it is quasi-certainty that over the next few years, governments will adopt a more protectionist approach and will increasingly embrace reshoring, as well as other industrial policies that promote advanced manufacturing (most likely behind a paywall, hence our long summary – reads in 6-8 min).
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Daron Acemoglu, How to make sure technology improves our lives
(CEPR, 7 March 2023)
Acemoglu is a leading economist whose research focuses on society’s choice on the positive vs negative direction of technology, looking into the incentives that shape this. In this short video (2 min 13 sec), he explains that technological changes have created prosperity throughout history, but with significant downsides (essentially more inequality). Robots, AI, and social media are now embedded in our daily lives, with both positive and negative effects, but the latter 3can be mitigated. Healthcare and climate change are a case in point: setting broad guidelines, regulations, and some taxation, have guided the direction of technological change in a productive fashion with societal benefits. These two success stories in the making can be repeated elsewhere.
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Ross Babbage, A War With China Would Be Unlike Anything Americans Faced Before
(The New York Times, 28 February 2023)
A scenario that is so painful that many refuse to consider it, particularly in the business and the investment community. It is not inevitable, yet it is plausible, as both China and the US are preparing for a war over Taiwan. As the Australian defense analyst explains, “a major war in the Indo-Pacific is probably more likely now than at any other time since WWII”. In any of the multiple conflict configurations (from a blockade to a fully-fledged war), China would react by weaponizing its dominance of supply chains and shipping, with devastating consequences for the global economy (gifted article – reads in 6-8 min).
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Michelle Konstantinovsky, Weight-Loss Drugs, Thin Worship, and Crash Diets: The Unwelcome Return of Eating Disorder Culture
(Glamour, 2 March 2023)
A new societal battleground enabled by the obsession with a new weight-loss drug. As the journalist observes, “we’re experiencing a slap-in-the-face backlash to the steps we’ve taken since the turn of the 21st century, and I’m starting to question if we ever really made progress at all.” The “thin at any cost” culture is back in force, positing thinness as the ultimate goal, and reinforcing the trope that falsely equates a lean body with success, discipline, and health. One of the reasons why eating disorders are on the rise and teenage depression as well (metered paywall – reads in 8-10 min).
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Sam Haddad, ‘It’s still as beautiful as ever’: the changing face of the French Alps
(The Guardian, 7 March 2023)
Curated from our office, with almost the very same view as the one in the article (albeit 1500 meters below). The violent reality of the climate crisis is glaringly obvious in Chamonix: the valley’s glaciers are shrinking, and the mountain is becoming ever more dangerous – here the climate emergency is vivid. There is only one viable strategy: mountain guides and their clients must find new ways to help mitigate the fast-rising risk (like by traveling to the mountains with 0 emissions) and adapt (by engaging into different activities and not having the same expectations as in the past) (free access – reads in 5-7 min).
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