Why inflation looks here to stay. What a post-Putin and/or post-war Russia might look like. Why the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is radically changing the economic and investment environment. Why devastating wildlife decline is not the whole LPI story. Why knowing one’s own mind is such a challenge.

QUOTE OF THE WEEK

“The fight against climate change is going to change more in the next four years than it has in the past 40. The great story of our lives is just beginning. Welcome aboard.” (Robinson Meyer in the third article of this week’s selection).

ARTICLE OF THE WEEK

Michael Spence, Secular Inflation
(Project Syndicate, 12 October 2022)
Higher than expected inflation is being powered by secular trends and transitory factors (like supply-chain disruptions and China’s zero-covid policies). The latter will eventually abate but the former has ended the decades-long deflationary pressures that we took for granted. The increase in the bargaining power of workers (in high-income countries), the rise in dependency ratios, geopolitical turmoil, and other supply shocks (like extreme climate events): all these will add significant additional inflationary pressure over the next several years. Only a broad-based surge in productivity could dampen it, but this is unlikely to happen overnight (metered paywall that may require prior registration – reads in 6-7 min).
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John MacLaughlin, Putin might lose the war. What would that look like for Russia, Ukraine and the world?
(Grid, 10 October 2022)
A former CIA senior exec elaborates on some of the surprises that may lie ahead. He also explains how best to deal with them. It starts with a remarkable observation: a month prior to the fall of the Berlin wall, most Western German officials insisted that “Germany would not and could not be reunited in their lifetimes.” MacLaughlin, who lived this experience in 1989, makes the case that “some version of defeat is increasingly likely for Russia” and he doubts Putin’s ability to survive politically. But if Russia loses, then what happens? Read on (metered paywall – 7-9 min).
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Robinson Meyer, The Climate Economy Is About to Explode
(The Atlantic, 5 October 2022)
According to a new analysis, the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) could be even more significant than US Congress currently thinks.  By sending total climate spending across the US economy to roughly $1.7 trillion over the next 10 years it is likely to be much more important than has so far been recognized. For big corporations, the IRA will change the narrative “from risk mitigation to opportunity capture”, and for investors it will make betting on clean energy one of the most certain economic trends of the next few years. In short: clean energy is now the safe, smart, government-backed bet for conservative investors (metered paywall – reads in 5-6 min).
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Benji Jones, There’s a frightening new report about wildlife declines. But many are getting the story wrong
(VOX, 12 October 2022)
Wildlife is in a staggering decline. According to the WWF, populations of most major animal groups (mammals, birds, and fish) have decreased by an average of 69% in the last 50 years. This ‘big’ number highlights the severity of biodiversity loss but can be confusing and misinterpreted, as it leaves aside the more hopeful data that demonstrates how conservation can work. Read on to understand how the Living Planet Index is constantly misinterpreted (free access – reads in 6-8 min).
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Phil Jaekl, I Didn’t Know My Mind Was So Strange Until I Started Listening to It
(Nautilus, 4 October 2022)
How, exactly, do we experience our own mental life? The question seems simple, but it is an “existentially important one” and surprisingly complex to answer. Follow the cognitive neuroscientist who took part in an experiment to decipher his inner thoughts and get a sense of how complicated this is. What does it mean to have an empty mind? Is the common assumption that mental life exists as a singular thread of experiences correct? One surprising insight: there’s no agreement on what “thinking” actually is. Fascinating throughout (metered paywall – reads in 7-9 min).
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