Further arguments weigh in on the side of stagflation in the ongoing inflation/deflation debate. The race against global warming demands systemic change for our food system as a whole and hard choices for the individual. The geopolitical impact of the pandemic will be prolonged and profound. There are always (at least) two sides to a story – what’s happening in Xinjiang is no exception. When less really is more: the 4-day week does work.
QUOTE OF THE WEEK
“The complexity of the threats, their intersections, and the potential for cascading events in an increasingly interconnected and mobile world create new challenges for the Intelligence Community. Ecological and climate changes, for example, are connected to public health risks, humanitarian concerns, social and political instability, and geopolitical rivalry”. (Annual Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community – April 2021)
ARTICLE OF THE WEEK
Nouriel Roubini, Is Stagflation Coming?
(Project Syndicate, 14 April 2021)
Yet another contribution to the inflation/deflation debate! Roubini discusses first the concerns that today’s ultra-loose fiscal and monetary policies will trigger inflation, and then the risk posed by potential negative supply shocks. In his opinion, there is no shortage of inflationary threats on the horizon – from trade wars and de-globalization to aging populations and populist politics. All these could affect potential growth while driving up production costs. It is for this reason that loose monetary/fiscal policies combined with the emergence of persistent negative supply shocks could over the years trigger inflationary – and eventually stagflationary – pressure (reads in 7-8 min).
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Annie Lowrey, Your Diet Is Cooking the Planet
(The Atlantic, 7 April 2021)
The global food system is the victim of a double-whammy that makes its reform an absolute necessity. On the one hand, food production accounts for roughly a quarter of the world’s greenhouse-gas emissions, and scientists agree that limiting global warming will be impossible without significant changes to how we eat. On the other, climate change is threatening the world’s food supply, with land and water being exploited at an “unprecedented” pace. A systemic change is therefore required, with consequences in terms of individual choices – the two main ones being a reduction in waste and eating less meat (reads in 7-8 min).
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Alex Ward, The pandemic’s impact on our world is only just beginning
(VOX, 14 April 2021)
The Annual Threat Assessment released by US intelligence agencies always makes interesting reading. The part devoted to the coronavirus impact makes it clear that the pandemic will define the world for years to come. In the near term, the poorest countries will be hit the hardest. In the long run, great powers like China, Russia, and the US will jockey for global influence, potentially driving them apart instead of closer together at a time when the world most needs cooperation. Nothing new, but more granular analysis and some interesting details can be found in the report – HERE (reads in 6-7 min).
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Weijian Shan, Xinjiang: what the West doesn’t tell you about China’s war on terror
(South China Morning Post, 14 April 2021)
Despite our best efforts, we remain a Western-centric organization, hence our determination to enlarge our views and provide contrarian opinions. This article does the trick! Our friend Kishore Mahbubani shared it with his community, exhorting us to read it carefully before “arriving at the final judgment of what is actually happening in Xinjiang” (Shan Weijian is the CEO of PAG and author of the fascinating bestseller Out of the Gobi).
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Amar Diwakar, ‘An idea whose time has come’: Why the four-day week is the future
(TRT World, 10 April 2021)
When thinking about the future of work, automation and WFH (working from home) often take precedence over everything else. This article expands on an idea whose “time has come”: the four-day week. Abundant academic research shows that a shorter workweek increases productivity and has a positive impact on wellbeing and the environment. More and more companies (starting from a very low base) are embracing the idea and implementing it (reads in about 10 min).
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