Mathew, a good friend of Monthly Barometer whom many of you might have met in Chamonix, is currently the Head of the Foresight, Strategy and Risks Initiative at the Atlantic Council. Before that, he had a distinguished career in the upper rankings of the CIA and NIC (National Intelligence Council). Mathew engaged in a conversation on his recently published Top 10 Risks for 2021.

KEY TAKE-AWAY

The COVID crisis, and the differentiated nature of recovery from it, is still the top risk going into 2021 and no doubt well beyond.

The hollowing out across the globe of the hitherto emerging middle class is a collective tragedy with long-term societal, economic and political consequences. With household debt a big part of the problem, any thought of governmental austerity would gravely worsen the situation. This would fan the flames of political extremism.

A worldwide food crisis is already upon us and, related to the K-shaped COVID recovery, it is not only children in the developing world that are facing malnutrition.

Risks to innovation are disparate. Cities, a major dynamo in the past, have been hardest hit by the pandemic. Ongoing restrictions on immigration and migration, although defendable in health risk terms (global herd immunity will not be achieved before 2024-25) will have a negative impact on innovation.

Negative impact on migrant worker remittances is amongst a long list of acute COVID-related challenges facing the developing world. The contingent risks of political unrest are of global concern and require a global response.

The degree of risk China-US relations represent will be determined by whether these are defined by containment or co-operation. Early signals from the Biden administration suggest the latter will be a challenge with open support of Taiwan and other indicators pointing to an accelerated move towards de-coupling.

Other geopolitical tensions and potential risks across the globe include North Korea touting for attention with nuclear ‘gestures’; toughening of US-Iran confrontation; poor conduits for Russian-US communication; Turkey ‘going rogue’ On the positive side, improved US-EU relations could yield new means of negotiation with third party countries.

The very real risk of a de-globalizing world and how to prevent it is not being discussed enough at the highest level. The ’Balkinisation’ of the internet is both a pre-cursor and a product of this creeping de-globalization.