Parag, the Founder & Managing Partner of FutureMap, is a leading global strategy advisor and a best-selling author based in Singapore. Parag writes and speaks extensively on Asia. His latest book is The Future is Asian: Commerce, Conflict & Culture in the 21st Century (2019).

KEY TAKE-AWAY

  • Asia must be regarded as a whole, not just China. It is a ‘sponge’ not a block with centuries of practice at ‘absorbing’ what suits it best. The region is succeeding in creating an interdependent, mutually beneficial, increasingly autonomous ‘Asian system’ with China at its centre. This has resulted in relative resilience to the global shock inflicted by the pandemic. In the currency markets, a shift to borrowing in domestic currency has also proved a source of resilience with the contingency of rendering those currencies a better ‘bet’. More former international travelers and students are staying and consuming in Asia – a domestic boost to the region’s economy and autonomy.

  • World War 3 scenarios are often envisaged in the region, but to date, geo-economic and geopolitical interests have been kept insulated. There remains a high chance of war over (e.g. Taiwan or certain disputed islands with the Philippines) but the explosion of one ‘nodule’ will not invalidate the story and future of the Asian system as a whole. There will be winners and losers, but wars are followed by settlements that will set the terms for a future characterized not by supra-nationalism but rather by peaceful co-existence, interspersed by periodic challenges and push back responses. Geopolitics is non–linear and the future is multipolar.

  • The absence of any pan-Asian environmental regime or energy and water-sharing accords is a major cause for concern. The signing of the RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership) is set to have a positive impact. A coherent response to the environmental threats faced by the region carries a green dividend (e.g In India accelerated transition to alternative energy would be fiscally advantageous as well environmentally).

  • Governments in the region were previously slow to embrace privatization, but fiscal shortfall and other pressures highlighted by the pandemic mean that they are now much more open to the notion of private investment. This is good for structural reforms, improved governance, and FDI. The region will see greater convergence and harmonization in terms of its investment landscape within five years.

  • India although currently outside the existing governance paradigm, with a population set to out-number even China by 2025 will inevitably play a significant part in shaping the overall future of the Asian system. The exact nature of India’s role is yet to be determined – but demographics remain key.

  • In South East Asia, one of the globe’s most unequal societies, 200 million poor are viewed not with shame but rather as ‘a job that needs doing’ burgeoning with investment potential. Education (remote learning); infrastructure; healthcare systems etc. This characterizes the fourth wave of the Asian growth story – youthful populations leapfrogging to prosperity – and it’s already started in earnest.

  • There is only one geographical definition of Asia – Iran and Turkey are part of it.