A ‘post- American’ world is perhaps closer than we think. Will this involve China challenging the dollar’s exorbitant privilege? Yes. Conspiracy theories, however, look set to continue unchallenged. Climate change-related risks are moving to another level.  Good luck may feel in short supply, but the good news is we can contribute to making some of our own.

QUOTE OF THE WEEK
“Post-truth is pre-fascism, and Trump has been our post-truth president.”  – Timothy Snyder in The New York Times Magazine

Richard Haas, Present at the Destruction
(Foreign Affairs, 11 January 2021)
The images of the mob assaulting the Capitol conveyed the sense that something is seriously wrong in and with the United States. In the opinion of the President of the Council of Foreign Relations, what took place then “was a distinctly American failure, but the consequences go far beyond American shores. A post-American world, one no longer defined by US primacy, is coming sooner than generally expected—less because of the inevitable rise of others than because of what the United States has done to itself” (reads in 8-10 min).
Click here to read the full article.

Arvind Subramanian and Josh Felman, The Year of the Renminbi?
(Project Syndicate, 18 January 2021)
This is an essential question for investors, many of whom, like Ray Dalio, are predicting that the Chinese currency will become a global reserve currency. As this article states, years of poor policy and political tumult in the US could progressively lead to a situation in which China’s currency challenges the greenback. But how soon? The authors observe that neither the US nor China has been doing itself any favors in the currency pageant, but “it is worth remembering that history is not on America’s side” (reads in 6-7 min).
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Greg Miller, The enduring allure of conspiracies
(Knowable Magazine, 14 January 2021)
At a time when conspiracy theories are flourishing all over the world, this article does a great job – grounded in conspiracy theory scholarship – at explaining why they are almost impossible to eradicate. Conspiracy theories are as old as politics and as current as the latest headlines. They seem to meet psychological needs and the only possible remedy is to keep them from taking root in the first place. In the words of one academic: “When it comes to conspiracy theories, prevention is better than cure” (reads in 8-10 min).
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Peter Giger, Climate change will be sudden and cataclysmic. We need to act fast
(World Economic Forum, 20 January 2021)
If ever we needed one more wake-up call about the severity of global warming, here it is! It doesn’t come from an Illuminati, but from the Chief Risk Officer of Zurich (a major insurance group) on the occasion of the launch of the Global Risk Report 2021 – the WEF’s flagship publication about upcoming global risks. Two key points: (1) Tipping points could fundamentally disrupt the planet and produce abrupt change in the climate; (2) A mass methane release could put us on an irreversible path to full land-ice melt, causing sea levels to rise by up to 30 metres (reads in about 8-10 min).
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Christian Busch, How to be lucky
(Psyche, 21 January 2021)
Our Summits of Minds gatherings proclaim to engineer serendipity, so this article is music to our ears! The author of “The Serendipity Mindset” explains how to train for luck and turn the unexpected into positive outcomes. Most of us think that it just happens (or doesn’t) but in reality, everyone can learn to look for the unexpected and find serendipity. It boils down to an active process of spotting and connecting the dots – “it is about seeing bridges where others see gaps, and then taking initiative and action(s) to create smart luck”. Read on – particularly the tips (about 9-11 min).
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