Just one week before the election, Steve shared his candid insights on why this US election matters so much.

Steve is a member of Treliant’s Senior Advisory Board with decades of experience at the highest level in the private and public sectors (in particular as President and CEO of the Financial Services Roundtable, Mayor of Dallas, and member of the US House of Representatives).

KEY TAKE-AWAYS

  • This US election is taking place in an unprecedented (with the exception perhaps of 1856 which eventually led to the Civil war) atmosphere of ‘palpable anger and a lack of listening for truth’ on both sides.
  • There is a notable (and hitherto unseen in the US) rise in the number of voters ready to accept the notion of socialism and its contingent policies to address inequalities.
  • There are already indicators that there will be a historic level of voter participation generally and particularly amongst the under thirties.
  • A snapshot of the two candidates’ current Facebook pages illustrates the nature of things to come post-election day
    1. Biden’s outlines inclusive economic plans and new anti-COVID policies
    2. Trump’s is devoted to election fraud for an election that hasn’t even happened yet. This sends the clear message that a Biden victory can be dismissed as fake news not to be believed or accepted.
  • It will be the most highly contested election ever. The American people have their say on one day (3rd November) but after that, the power of decision is handed back to the legal and political systems.
  • There will be multiple allegations of electoral fraud and disputed results. These legal wranglings will play out between 3rd November and 20th January. Before this final date, there can be no result unless President Trump concedes defeat. This he has said he will never do.
  • There is a very real risk that these election-day disputes will lead to physical violence. To this end, President Trump has all but invited his supporters to ‘stand by’. This covert message combined with his determination not to concede and to dismiss anything but a result in his favour as fake or fraudulent will encourage a turn to physical violence.
  • If President Trump is still refusing to leave the White House on 20th January, there is a solution of last resort which would involve mobilizing the Secret Service and the FBI and the possible use of force.
  • Polls are indicating a democratic victory but there is still a need for caution particularly in terms of the hidden Republican vote that passes below the pollsters’ radar and the impact of voters (predominantly democrats) being physically prevented from actually casting their vote.
  • Perhaps counter-intuitively, in Steve Bartlett’s opinion, US business and the US $’s global reputation can and will ride this domestic political storm. Americans will go on consuming despite very real (albeit) relatively isolated outbreaks of violence and a Biden victory (according to Steve) will lower the trade tensions between the US and China with a more consistent trade policy. Current US debt to GDP ratios are unsustainable and to conserve the dollars international standing fiscal policies in the next term must address this (likely to include capital gains tax at 28% and rises in higher rate income tax).
  • Joe Biden can be expected (if he wins) to conduct his presidency as he has always done his politics in a spirit of collaboration. He is less likely to be demonized by Republicans (cf Obama and Clinton) and as such is better placed to achieve centrist solutions.