In the US there is no truly national Covid-19 strategy: the responsibility has been devolved to state authorities. This has been an inherently flawed approach because of inter-state movement, a lack of adequate resources and tools to fight the pandemic at the state level, and competition between the states for supplies and resources.

This session of Ask our Experts features Ron Klain, an American political consultant, civil servant, and attorney. He served as chief of staff to two U.S. vice presidents: Al Gore and Joe Biden. He was appointed by Barack Obama to serve as the White House Ebola response coordinator in late-2014 into early-2015.

KEY TAKE-AWAYS

  • The US Covid-19 experience differs from that of Europe and other Western countries. In the US, the pandemic has impacted different parts of the country differently, depending on geography and demography. In New York, New Jersey and Massachusetts the pattern was closer to the ‘European’ model (lockdown, peak, reduction, partial re-opening) – following a classical declining epidemiological curve. Now, in the less populous Southern and Western states, the US is starting to see the number of cases in percentage terms rise, in some places dramatically (e.g.100% in Arizona last week). The aggregate of these two very different scenarios is that the US is now experiencing fatality levels plateauing and ongoing at an astonishingly high 20 – 25,000 a month. The result is a sort of normalization of Covid which brings with it growing frustration and anxiety about the inconsistent, ill-coordinated and often inadequate policy responses to the pandemic. In the US there was (and is) no truly national Covid-19 strategy: the responsibility has been devolved to state authorities. This has been an inherently flawed approach because of inter-state movement, a lack of adequate resources and tools to fight the pandemic at the state level, and competition between the states for supplies and resources.
  • In terms of economic impact, the full effect of ‘Covid compression’ in the US is yet to come. Partial opening and the first signs of some job restoration coupled with stimulus payments ($1200 to everyone) and a larger-than-usual unemployment benefit (of $600 / week) have provided some immediate stimulus to the economy. But this is unlikely to last beyond the summer (when the unemployment benefit runs out). The US has a 10% unemployment rate predicted for September and by then about 25,000 businesses permanently closed – an ongoing impact that will weigh down any
    recovery, unless Congress passes new measures.
  • The political impact in terms of the upcoming presidential election remains dependent on critical ‘unknowns’ that will determine which narrative prevails in November. Positivity about a vaccine and testing combined with a notion that the nation is progressing and has avoided the abyss could play in Trump’s favour. But the ongoing gravity of the health and economic situation, plus a double figure unemployment rate (to date, no modern US president has ever been re- elected with unemployment over 8%), still have the potential to do the opposite. The greatest electoral unknown is electoral mechanics, which in the US are in the hands of one party or another, resulting in much gamesmanship. This anomaly of the US electoral system is unlikely to change. However, technology and online funding has done much to level the electoral funding playing field. That said, social media furnish an effective conduit for foreign intervention in US domestic politics.
  • The American electorate divides along racial and educational lines. Much voting in the US cannot be explained by economic divides alone. Socio-politico polarization mitigates the political impact of inequality. The Military is the one institution that can transcend this social (ideological) cleavage. Direct criticism by leading military leaders has harmed Trump’s popularity amongst his traditional supporters.
  • In terms of the Black Lives Matter campaign, the major change that has occurred is not only in the street but in some ways, more significantly, in the majority of the US population’s mindset. US public opinion has changed, broadly. This will have profound and widespread impact.
  • A Biden presidency is likely to be more consistently tougher on China with regards to trade and human rights as compared to Trump’s erratic and ultimately quite accommodating policy mix. US-China relations are strained and getting more so and the risk of them evolving in a dramatic fashion should not be underestimated.
  • With regard to the US Dollar, Trump’s lack of leadership throughout the devastating Covid-19 crisis has undermined US global standing and increased its isolation from former allies. A Trump victory would see this trend deepen – a Biden victory would usher in attempts to revive and restore former alliances.