ASK OUR EXPERTS #10: Peter Kingsley, Three Global Scenarios for the Post-Pandemic Era

The scenarios haven’t changed since before the Covid-19 crisis. The pandemic has merely intensified existing issues, exposed many systemic weaknesses and speeded up pending failures.

The Scenarios at a Glance

• Dark Ages
  Multi-lateralism comes to an end, there is a vacuum in global governance compounded by an ‘underground’ war in cyberspace. Unemployment is chronically high for decades and we are faced with an economic depression (not recession) that leads to a further series of concatenated events. Humanitarian crises. Major weather events with catastrophic consequences: food crises; water shortages; mass migration. The security environment also degenerates. By 2030, the evidence that too little was done too late emerges, not only on climate but across the policy board: drastic health problems; geopolitical rivalries become wars; swathes of the planet become uninhabitable. The story describes survival conditions around the world. (The exceptions being those countries that are today already focusing on greater societal, environmental, and political resilience.)
• Walled Gardens
  The great reset is potentially positive. Globalisation comes to an end but in a different way. Globalisation comes to an end but in a different way. Localization of everything gathers pace and countries withdraw into their physical and cultural boundaries in pursuit of better food security and cybersecurity, and greater autonomy free from complex global supply chains. The end of multilateralism signals the demise of multi-national corporations. This is not all necessarily bad, as effective control in a volatile climate is often a very local matter and self-sufficiency enhances adaptability (e.g. some US cities are today going it alone and taking a long-term approach in their climate policies). The dominant narrative for Walled Gardens is one of post-industrial green nationalism. Virtual (trade that exists is virtual, IP, research sharing, etc), digital and remote services are all boosted. Localisation and greater self-sufficiency are unifying factors socially, economically, and politically and can result in more inclusive societies – this is potentially positive.
• Renaissance
  This is a much more accelerated world. Policymakers move from prevarication to panic (particularly in terms of environment). The pandemic marks a tipping point and acts a catalyst for cultural convergence between the public, private investors, government, and regulators. The latter are prime movers in renaissance. (This is increasingly the case in the post-Covid-19 era.) Cultural wars of opinion will go on through the 20’s until, by 2030, there is a widespread realization that the only option is big scale co-ordinated action. The narrative is one of massive regeneration of the natural world leading to a worldwide re-engineering boom to ensure climate and health security. This will create a very positive investment climate as well as providing a source of vital employment. Renaissance scenario assumes that global security comes together on the major issues (not least the nuclear threat). Inherently green, machine-aided, remote services lead to a so-called ‘care world’ more sympathetic to human needs and wellbeing in which good surveillance (that is to say systems that reconcile privacy issues with health security) is rolled out. And thus by 2035-40, there is effectively global governance enabling a truly green re-generative world.

KEY TAKE-AWAYS

• The Covid-19 tragedy is a great reset. It has created a set of novel complexity conditions which means that the already highly complex environment pre the pandemic is now even more so. New interconnections at every level and in all sectors have contributed to this augmented complexity. Many leaders, (albeit with some significant exceptions) national, corporate, and global have been found wanting, guilty of a failure of imagination and an incapacity to deal with the degree of complexity they are currently facing. This will not go away and therefore we can expect further shocks as complexity continues to increase.
• Good, long term stewardship, both financial and political, responds better to crises. Family businesses or corporations run along certain principles (inter-generational view of time and entrepreneurial spirit) have proved more resilient. These enterprises have an important role in the regenerative Renaissance scenario.
• Certain political regimes are worse placed to deal with negative scenarios and then become an exacerbating force. Populists’ dislike of experts, denial of science and adherence to short term-in-the moment policies have had catastrophic results. (e.g. in India, Modi’s last minute, no warning lockdown left millions stranded). Populist propaganda and dis-functional politics play into a Dark Ages scenario.
• The scenarios haven’t changed since before the Covid-19 crisis. The pandemic has merely intensified existing issues, exposed many systemic weaknesses, and speeded up pending failures. But it’s not all bad, acceleration has also created new opportunities and investing in the right things could have a determining role in which scenario prevails.
• In a hyper turbulent environment, scenarios come into their own because in such unprecedented complexity other models (algorithms, non-scenarios methods) lack the requisite data to make valid predictions. They are ill-suited to deal with non-linear situations. Identifying and monitoring weak signals (as many as 40 – 50) is a fundamental part of scenario building, dealing with systems of systems and the occurrence of mini perfect storms resulting not only from interconnectivity but coincidence of timing. Weak signals are inherently ambiguous and therefore it is the interplay between the that is all-important.
• A combination of all three scenarios could co-exist at the same time in different parts of the world.
• The pandemic was a wild card, not a black swan, and there is now much to suggest that the wild card is evolving into a fact of life that we will have to learn to live with.