Barry Eichengreen, “Shelter from the Storm in 2019”
In the next few months, global economic, financial, and political stability will depend on four things: (1), the trade war between the US and China will have to be placed on hold, (2) the US economy will have to grow by at least 2%, (3) China will have to avoid a significant intensification of its financial problems, and (4) voters in the European Parliament election in May will have to prevent the victory of a right-wing nationalist majority hostile to European integration. What happens on one front is likely to affect the prospects for positive outcomes on all the others (reads in 7-8 min).

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