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Kenneth Rogoff
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  • SOCIETY, Democracies/autocracies, PSYCHOLOGY, Human condition

    Rafael Behr, "The remainers’ biggest problem? Voters have switched off"

    The Guardian - 11 Sep 2018

    This is a brilliant article written about the UK exit from the EU, but it’s much broader than that: it deals with the issue of disengagement and therefore explains a lot of what’s happening globally. The reality is this: most voters don’t care about most things, and getting their attention is causing inconvenience.  Sixty per cent of all British voters agree with the statement: “I no longer care how or when we leave the EU, I just want it over and done with” (reads in 5-6 min).

    Published in Weekly selection 14 September 2018

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  • ECONOMICS, Emerging Markets

    Satyajit Das, "How the Emerging-Markets Contagion Loop May Play"

    Bloomberg - 11 Sep 2018

    Contagion from Turkey and Argentina to other emerging markets is not a given, but it might happen. This article describes how trouble could spread. The major cause would be the “common lender channel phenomenon” - creditors curtailing lending to unaffected markets and as they seek to rebuild capital and realign risk. Volatility of and correlations among EM asset prices and currencies would also play as they increase in situations of stress (reads in 7-8 min).

    Published in Weekly selection 14 September 2018

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  • ECONOMICS, Financial sector, Global Growth

    Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa, "The Makings of a 2020 Recession and Financial Crisis"

    Project Syndicate - 13 Sep 2018

    It’s hard to disagree with Nouriel’s warning: by 2020, the conditions will be ripe for a financial crisis, followed by a global recession. The global economy - that has been undergoing a sustained period of synchronized growth - will inevitably lose steam as unsustainable fiscal policies in the US start to phase out. Come 2020, the stage will be set for another downturn – and, unlike in 2008, governments will lack the policy tools to manage it (reads in 6-7 min).

    Published in Weekly selection 14 September 2018

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