Project Syndicate - 14 Dec 2017
The economist contends that despite seemingly robust indicators, the world economy may not be nearly as resilient to shocks and systemic challenges as the consensus view believes. He offers three reasons as to why this is, which he calls “the unwinding of three mega-trends”: (1) unconventional monetary policy, (2) the real economy’s dependence on assets, and (3) a potentially destabilizing global saving arbitrage (reads in 5-7 min).
Published in Weekly selection 15 December 2017
Project Syndicate - 28 Nov 2017
The Nobel laureate asserts that the global economy will confront serious challenges in the months and years ahead - first and foremost a mountain of debt that makes markets nervous and increases the system's vulnerability to destabilizing shocks. Yet his baseline scenario is one of continuity. With the exception of the UK, markets and economies have shrugged off political disorder, and the risk of a substantial short-term setback seems relatively small. A panoramic over view of the world economy that reads in 7-9 min.
Published in Weekly selection 1 December 2017
Project Syndicate - 8 Nov 2017
The policy-maker turned think-tanker argues that the greatest political risks to global markets today are not the ones that are most visible (Korean peninsula, the Middle East, Venezuela and so on). Even if a “big” crisis occurred, their impact on the markets would, like in the past, be transient. Today’s biggest risk is the US because if it becomes less predictable it might fundamentally reshape investor expectations and require a higher discount rate almost everywhere (reads in 5-7 min).
Published in Weekly selection 11 November 2017