Project Syndicate - 13 Sep 2018
It’s hard to disagree with Nouriel’s warning: by 2020, the conditions will be ripe for a financial crisis, followed by a global recession. The global economy - that has been undergoing a sustained period of synchronized growth - will inevitably lose steam as unsustainable fiscal policies in the US start to phase out. Come 2020, the stage will be set for another downturn – and, unlike in 2008, governments will lack the policy tools to manage it (reads in 6-7 min).
Published in Weekly selection 14 September 2018
Prospect Magazine - 23 Apr 2018
Today, global public and private debt exceeds that of 2007 by $50 trillion. We could take comfort in the fact that the biggest global debtors (the US, China and Japan) have been living with large debt for a long time without tipping the world into another systemic financial crisis. Magnus warns, however, that too high a debt could be a prelude to the next economic crisis. He enumerates four reasons why we should worry. The bottom line: when the next crisis comes, over-indebtedness will limit fiscal flexibility (reads in 6-8 min).
Published in Weekly selection 28 April 2018
Project Syndicate - 19 Mar 2018
The productivity paradox (despite all the hype about tech, productivity is flat or declining) is one of today’s big economic conundrums. Not only are new technologies doing less to boost productivity than past innovations; but - as counterintuitive as it may sound – they may even have negative side effects that undermine productivity growth, and that reduce our wellbeing in other ways as well. This article explains persuasively why (reads in 4-5 min).
Published in Weekly selection 23 March 2018