Quartz - 11 Nov 2017
This article is important in one particular respect: it illustrates why some of the categories we continue to employ about today’s world are no longer pertinent and as such can lead to bad decision-making. Investors and economists, for example, define China as a “developing country”, leading most institutional investors to invest accordingly (by placing China is the “emerging” bucket). Yet, on many counts (like infrastructure) China is more advanced that most advanced economies (reads in 4-6 min).
Published in Weekly selection 18 November 2017
Project Syndicate - 8 Nov 2017
The policy-maker turned think-tanker argues that the greatest political risks to global markets today are not the ones that are most visible (Korean peninsula, the Middle East, Venezuela and so on). Even if a “big” crisis occurred, their impact on the markets would, like in the past, be transient. Today’s biggest risk is the US because if it becomes less predictable it might fundamentally reshape investor expectations and require a higher discount rate almost everywhere (reads in 5-7 min).
Published in Weekly selection 11 November 2017
Quartz - 6 Oct 2017
A report from Deutsche Bank asserts that the next financial crisis will be provoked by the world’s major central banks: how will they unwind their balance sheets of unprecedented size? The fiat money system has encouraged rising budget deficits, higher debts, global imbalances, and more unstable markets, while banking regulations have been loosened, particularly in the US. This leaves the current global economy particularly prone to a cycle of booms and busts (reads in 4-6 min).
Published in Weekly selection 13 October 2017