Bloomberg - 9 Jan 2018
As the yield on the US 10-year Treasury note just climbed today to its highest level since 2014, it’s worth reading this warning given 10 days ago by a bond market guru. If the three-decade boom in the $50tn market comes to an end, the consequences will be far-reaching and monumental (reads in 4-5 min).
Published in Weekly selection 19 January 2018
Quartz - 11 Nov 2017
This article is important in one particular respect: it illustrates why some of the categories we continue to employ about today’s world are no longer pertinent and as such can lead to bad decision-making. Investors and economists, for example, define China as a “developing country”, leading most institutional investors to invest accordingly (by placing China is the “emerging” bucket). Yet, on many counts (like infrastructure) China is more advanced that most advanced economies (reads in 4-6 min).
Published in Weekly selection 18 November 2017
Project Syndicate - 8 Nov 2017
The policy-maker turned think-tanker argues that the greatest political risks to global markets today are not the ones that are most visible (Korean peninsula, the Middle East, Venezuela and so on). Even if a “big” crisis occurred, their impact on the markets would, like in the past, be transient. Today’s biggest risk is the US because if it becomes less predictable it might fundamentally reshape investor expectations and require a higher discount rate almost everywhere (reads in 5-7 min).
Published in Weekly selection 11 November 2017