Bloomberg View - 11 Sep 2017
Allianz’s chief economist argues that investors have been conditioned to buy the dip, regardless of its causes. Their desire to return to a comfort zone can lead to overly optimistic assessments of risks. This attitude makes them vulnerable to sudden large tipping points, particularly those difficult to price, like geopolitics or national politics (reads in 4-6 min).
Published in Weekly selection 15 September 2017
Quartz - 5 Sep 2017
This is an interview with Robert Shiller, the professor at Yale who won the Nobel prize in economics for his work on financial bubbles. In his opinion, the current biggest bubble is bitcoin, but he also thinks that there are currently in the US aspects of a housing bubble and a stock market bubble. His valuation confidence index is at the lowest it’s been since around 2000, but the mindset is somewhat similar to the dot-com one, with the “FANGs” now replacing the tech companies of the 2000s (reads in 5-7 min).
Published in Weekly selection 8 September 2017
Project Syndicate - 15 Aug 2017
What was until recently a rhetorical question is now becoming an issue of acute relevance for all those who are structurally bullish about the $ (and the world!). President Trump’s actions are now severely undermining confidence in the greenback, which has lost 10% of its value since the election. Could the trickle turn into a flood that will leave the dollar permanently damaged? (reads in 4-6 min).
Published in Weekly selection 18 August 2017