Bloomberg View - 1 May 2017
The banker turned author warns us not to be complacent about emerging markets. In his view, a confluence of factors appears to be increasing rather than lowering their risks. (1) Their level of foreign-currency debt remains worryingly high, and rising rates will make it more difficult to service it; (2) The rebound in commodity prices that buoyed sentiment at the end of last year is fading; (3) Financial risks remain high (reads in 4-6 min).
Published in Weekly selection 5 May 2017
Project Syndicate - 26 Apr 2017
The pendulum of world economic growth has swung dramatically from advanced countries to the emerging economies. It is a stunning development that raises at least three fundamental questions about our understanding of macroeconomics: (1) it’s time to rethink the role of monetary policy, (2) the developing world is now far less dependent on the global trade cycle and more reliant on internal demand, (3) China has played a disproportionate role in reshaping the world economy (reads in 5-7 min).
Published in Weekly selection 29 April 2017
Project Syndicate - 26 Jul 2016
The Nobel laureate in economics argues that emerging markets are facing major obstacles to achieving sustained high growth, and that they have little to no control over many of them. In particular, the disruptive impacts of technology are set to erode their comparative advantage in labor-intensive manufacturing activities. He suggests five conditions to adapt their growth strategies (reads in 6-8 min).
Published in Weekly selection 30 July 2016