Project Syndicate - 15 Nov 2018
This (very factual) article should be read against the background of increased evidence that China might be winning the trade war with the US. The US President’s tariffs on imported steel are a perfect example of how protectionism raises costs for consumers and producers, destroys jobs, and undermines domestic competitiveness. In short: the deficit reflects the difference between domestic savings and investment; so tariffs will neither reduce the US current-account deficit nor create more net jobs (reads in 6-8 min).
Published in Weekly selection 16 November 2018
Project Syndicate - 9 Nov 2018
The Harvard economist thinks that when the inevitable Chinese growth recession occurs, the rest of the world will suffer more than commonly assumed. First, the effect on international capital markets could be vastly greater than Chinese capital market linkages would suggest, simply because foreign firms enjoy huge profits on sales in China. Second, a Chinese slowdown spreading across Asia could paradoxically lead to higher interest rates elsewhere, particularly if a second Asian financial crisis leads to a sharp draw-down of central bank reserves (reads in 6-7 min).
Published in Weekly selection 10 November 2018
Foreign Affairs (metered paywall) - 28 Oct 2018
Bolsonaro has accomplished the once unthinkable: he has won the presidency of Latin America’s largest country, which accounts for approximately 40 percent of the region’s population and a roughly equal share of its GDP. Most likely, he’ll preside over the biggest foreign policy shift in that country’s recent history - a change that will have important reverberations throughout the Americas and across the globe (reads in 7-9 min).
Published in Weekly selection 2 November 2018