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Kenneth Rogoff
Filter: Category: ECONOMICS
  • ECONOMICS, Emerging Markets

    Satyajit Das, "How the Emerging-Markets Contagion Loop May Play"

    Bloomberg - 11 Sep 2018

    Contagion from Turkey and Argentina to other emerging markets is not a given, but it might happen. This article describes how trouble could spread. The major cause would be the “common lender channel phenomenon” - creditors curtailing lending to unaffected markets and as they seek to rebuild capital and realign risk. Volatility of and correlations among EM asset prices and currencies would also play as they increase in situations of stress (reads in 7-8 min).

    Published in Weekly selection 14 September 2018

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  • ECONOMICS, Financial sector, Global Growth

    Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa, "The Makings of a 2020 Recession and Financial Crisis"

    Project Syndicate - 13 Sep 2018

    It’s hard to disagree with Nouriel’s warning: by 2020, the conditions will be ripe for a financial crisis, followed by a global recession. The global economy - that has been undergoing a sustained period of synchronized growth - will inevitably lose steam as unsustainable fiscal policies in the US start to phase out. Come 2020, the stage will be set for another downturn – and, unlike in 2008, governments will lack the policy tools to manage it (reads in 6-7 min).

    Published in Weekly selection 14 September 2018

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  • ECONOMICS, SOCIETY

    Martin Wolf, "Why so little has changed since the financial crash"

    Financial Times - paywall - 4 Sep 2018

    Normally, we don’t include FT articles because of the paywall, but this one is so incisive and such a salutary warning that we decided to make an exception. The editorialist argues that the current inertia is caused by the power of vested interests. We live in a rent-extracting economy in which monopoly and “zero-sum” activities are pervasive. Few question the value of the vast quantities of financial sector activity that continue to exist, or recognize the risks of further big financial crises (reads in 6-7 min).

    Published in Weekly selection 8 September 2018

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