Bloomberg - 4 Oct 2018
The odds of an accidental clash (like a small, indecisive conflict between warships in the South China Sea) between the US and China are not insignificant; and the argument that the countries are too economically dependent on each other to go to war doesn’t hold (so were Britain and Germany on the eve of WWI). No one can tell whether a war is likely, but some suggest that a conflict of some sort between the two is inevitable. If it takes place, the global-trade regime as we know it will come to an end, with supply chains across the world unwinding rapidly and painfully (reads in 5-6 min).
Published in Weekly selection 5 October 2018
The Atlantic - 1 Jul 2018
In a new book (The Road to Unfreedom), the historian Timothy Snyder explains how Russia revolutionized information warfare—and presages its consequences for democracies in Europe and the US. For Clausewitz, war was the use of violence by one state to impose its will upon another; but now new technology enables a state to “engage the enemy’s will directly, without the medium of violence.” This is a revolution that Russia has imposed upon the US and the EU. Snyder sees Trump as the ultimate expression of Putin’s anti-factuality and as a “Russian tool” (reads in 12-15 min).
Published in Weekly selection 7 July 2018
Foreign Affairs (metered paywall) - 1 Jul 2018
This is a must-read for those in denial about the significance of climate change. The US academic explains why climate matters more than anything else. The world is entering a period that the climate scientist Katharine Hayhoe calls “global weirding”, and its “disruption to the earth’s climate will ultimately command more attention and resources and have a greater influence on the global economy and international relations than other forces visible in the world today” (reads in 8-10 min).
Published in Weekly selection 30 June 2018