Quartz - 17 Jul 2017
China’s economy continues to outperform, but the driver of upbeat activity “remains all the things that China was trying to get away from like coal, steel” (according to a professor at Peking University’s HSBC Business School). The reason is this: the authorities are reluctant to get to the root of the misallocation of credit—a key concern given the high level of indebtedness. That would involve allowing more actual bankruptcies, and job losses (reads in 5-7 min).
Published in Weekly selection 28 July 2017
Foreign Affairs (metered paywall) - 29 Jun 2017
This article explains in simple and unambiguous terms why China's ballooning corporate debt has become a threat to the global economy. At the moment, the Chinese authorities keep inflating away the debt, but they will soon have to perform an economically complicated and politically sensitive balancing act: reining in credit growth while supporting only the most efficient firms (reads in 3-4 min).
Published in Weekly selection 30 June 2017
Project Syndicate - 25 May 2017
The article’s title is the name of a popular course Roach has given at Yale since 2010. Once an adapter to globalization, China is increasingly a driver of it. The Next China is becoming a Global China, upping the ante on its connection to an increasingly integrated world. It is shaping up to be more outwardly focused, more assertive, and more power-centric than Roach envisaged a few years ago. At the same time, there appears to be less commitment to a market-based reform agenda featuring private consumption and SOE restructuring (reads in 5-6 min).
Published in Weekly selection 26 May 2017