Bloomberg - 3 Sep 2018
In the long-term, the US will outstrip China because the Middle Kingdom has set itself up for a brutal demographic collapse. Shortly after China overtakes the US economy in size (around 2030), all the legacies of the one-child policy coalesce as the society seriously ages, stalling out China’s expansion. The US will also face demographic challenges, but nothing on the scale of China. India and Indonesia will benefit (reads in 4-5 min).
Published in Weekly selection 8 September 2018
The New York Times - metered paywall - 15 Aug 2018
The author of “The Rise and Fall of Nations” argues that the fate of the world economy depends on how China negotiates a weakening currency and capital flight. This is a tough and complex dilemma. The strengthening dollar threatens to provoke more capital flight out of China, but any effort to shore up the renminbi in response could further slow the Chinese economy. If, however, it does the opposite (lowering rates), China will only give Chinese investors more reason to leave the country, further undermining confidence (reads in 5-6 min).
Published in Weekly selection 17 August 2018
Foreign Policy - metered paywall - 8 Aug 2018
This is a dense piece that offers an interesting and controversial framework to think about the relations between China and the US. The academic asserts that the trade war is a sign of a global system gone wrong. He worries about the growing consensus in the US that the Chinese are conducting trade in a predatory manner and that the time for confrontation has arrived. In his opinion, vilifying China is “a substitute for facing honestly the urgent need to transform the nature of global growth” because for China, the central question is not trade but development (reads in 8-10 min).
Published in Weekly selection 11 August 2018